Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus66 klox 281210
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard California
510 am PDT Tue Mar 28 2017
..aviation discussion updated...
Gusty north to northeast winds will slowly diminish today, and it
will be warmer. High pressure will continue the warming trend
Wednesday. An upper trough of low pressure moving to our north
will bring cooling again for Thursday and Friday with gusty
winds. Warmer weather is expected over the weekend as another
ridge builds into the region. There should be cooling on Monday as
a trough moves into the West Coast
Gusty north winds continued across a good portion of l.A. County,
eastern vtu County, and southern Santa Barbara County early this
morning. Damaging gusts to 60 mph continued across the mountains,
and while a High Wind Warning was in effect for the vtu and l.A.
County mountains, it has been extended through mid morning for the
sba County mountains as well. Wind advisories have also been
extended for the South Coast of sba County. Otherwise, wind
advisories remain in place for most of the rest of l.A. And vtu
counties through early afternoon. Winds should begin to diminish
in coastal areas by mid morning, and in the valleys this afternoon.
An upper ridge amplifying off the West Coast today will cause
heights and thicknesses, and temps aloft to rise. This will bring
several degrees of warming to the entire area today, especially
west of the mountains where compressional warming due to offshore
flow will assist in the warming process. Max temps should reach
or exceed 80 degrees in warmer coastal and valley areas today.
The ridge will continue to build tonight and Wed and heights and
thicknesses will continue to rise. Low level flow will remain
offshore, likely enough for some gusty NE winds across l.A. And
vtu counties, but winds will probably remain advisory levels. Max
temps will jump again on Wed, possibly getting close to 90
degrees in some valley areas.
An upper level trough will evolve into an upper low as it moves
through the pac northwest into the Great Basin on Thu. Gusty west to
northwest winds should develop in the mountains, in the Antelope
Valley and on the central coast during the afternoon as the its
dry frontal system pushes across the region and subsidence sweeps
into the area. There should be several degrees of cooling in most
areas on Thu.
The upper low will drift east southeastward Thu night, reaching
The Four Corners area Fri morning. It looks as though the wind
pattern Thu night and early Fri will be very similar to this
current wind event, with widespread advisory level winds across
the region, and possibly low end High Wind Warning level wind
gusts in a few locations. Max temps on Fri should be similar to
those on Thu in most areas. An upper ridge will build into the
West Coast Sat, and low level flow will turn northeasterly. This
should bring significant warming to most areas, and Max temps
will probably rise back into the 80s in the valleys. A trough will
approach the pac northwest on Sunday, but heights will remain rather
high across the region, so it should remain rather warm. There
could be some cooling sun, especially across the coastal plain.
More significant and widespread cooling is expected Monday as the
trough digs down the West Coast and into California. The latest run of the
GFS suggests that some rain is not out of the question across
portions of the forecast area late Sun night into Monday. The ec
is much weaker with this trough, showing much less cooling and
little if any chance of rain.
At 09z at klax... there was no notable inversion.
Overall... high confidence in the current tafs. Moderate to
strong low-level wind shear and turbulence is possible at all
terminals through 18z. There is a fifteen percent chance of LIFR
conditions at kprb 13z-17z. Otherwise and elsewhere VFR conditions
Klax... moderate to high confidence in the current taf. Moderate
to strong low-level wind shear and turbulence is possible through
18z. There is a twenty percent chance of east winds to 15 knots
through 16z. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail.
Kbur... high confidence in the current taf. Moderate to strong
low-level wind shear and turbulence is possible through 18z.
Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail.
Across the outer waters... Small Craft Advisory (sca) level winds
will continue through at least Thursday morning when they will
likely strengthen into gale levels through Friday.
Across the inner waters... a Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas is in effect
through this afternoon south of Point Conception due to steep and
choppy waves. Gale level winds may affect the inner waters on
Thursday and Friday.
California...high surf advisory in effect until 2 PM PDT Wednesday for
zones 34-35. (See laxcfwlox).
Wind Advisory in effect until 9 am PDT this morning for zones
39-41-87. (See laxnpwlox).
Beach hazards statement in effect through Wednesday afternoon
for zones 40-41-87. (See laxcfwlox).
Wind Advisory in effect until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for
zones 44>46-88-547. (See laxnpwlox).
High Wind Warning in effect until 9 am PDT this morning for
zones 52>54. (See laxnpwlox).
Wind Advisory in effect from 9 am this morning to 2 PM PDT
this afternoon for zones 53-54. (See laxnpwlox).
Pz...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas in effect until 3 PM
PDT this afternoon for zones 650-655. (See laxmwwlox).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until noon PDT Thursday for
zones 670-673-676. (See laxmwwlox).
Hazard potential outlook...(thu-mon)
another round of strong and gusty northwest to north winds may
affect much of the region Thu night into Fri morning.