Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus63 klot 232313
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, Illinois
613 PM CDT sun Jul 23 2017
1248 PM CDT
Compact and digging upper trough over the upper Great Lakes will
continue southeast tonight. Height falls on the back side of the
trough will provide enough forcing ahead of a cold frontal
boundary to trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms during the
peak heating period this afternoon/early evening. Surface
convergence is weaker, possibly aided by the lake breeze, thus
scattered coverage seems appropriate. The parameter space of
instability/shear of approaching around 1000 j/kg and 30kt
respectively, with hail growth and downdraft cape at respectable
levels, places a marginal risk of damaging winds and large hail,
consistent with the Storm Prediction Center outlook.
The thunderstorm concerns will end quickly this evening as these
combined factors all shift southeast with the arrival of the
cooler and drier airmass behind the frontal boundary and
increased surface pressure ahead of large high pressure across
the upper Midwest.
Behind the front in Minnesota and across Lake Superior there is an area
of lower clouds. Some of these clouds will likely move southward
behind the front later tonight into early Monday in our area as
well and linger a bit in the morning. Breezy northeast winds will
also be in place through the remainder of the day providing some
natural air conditioning to the region after the recent muggy
period, with 70s for highs most areas.
111 PM CDT
Monday night through Sunday...
Model guidance is in pretty good agreement that the upcoming week
into next weekend will generally be much drier, both in terms of
precipitation amounts and dewpoints.
Tuesday should feature sunshine and seasonably warm temps and
comfortable humidity levels with an afternoon lake breeze knocking
temps Lakeside down a bit. Temps and humidity will begin to creep
back upward Wednesday as southerly flow becomes established in
advance of the next shortwave and associated cold front.
Generally pretty good agreement between the GFS/Gem/ECMWF with
respect to timing of midweek cold frontal passage, which looks to
be in the later Wed night into Thursday morning time frame. Fairly
Stout trough with plenty of moisture around would suggest a still
respectable chance of showers/storms despite the unfavorable
frontal timing. If timing of front slows in later model runs, then
chances for convection would likely end up being a bit higher.
Regardless of the timing, all indications are that this will be a
progressive trough and front, not one that looks overly concerning
at this distance for a major rain event that would have a big
impact on already swollen rivers.
In the wake of that front, all indications are that next weekend
will feature some really fantastic mid-Summer weather with fairly
seasonable temps (maybe a bit below average), afternoon lake
breezes, comfortable humidity, and sunshine.
for the 00z tafs...
Northwest winds have set up behind the storms and will persist
overnight. MVFR cigs are expected to spread across the region
early Monday morning and winds become northeast. Latest guidance
suggests MVFR cigs could arrive earlier around 09z, but do not
have enough confidence to go that early at this time. Cigs rise
and scatter out in the early afternoon. Under high pressure, light
northeast winds and VFR conditions are expected Monday afternoon
111 PM CDT
Fairly typical Summer pattern over the lake with high pressure
resulting in primarily Land/Lake breeze circulation winds Tuesday
before the high moves east Tuesday night allowing for a period of
more defined southerly winds midweek. Cold front will move down the
lake Wednesday night with a shower and thunderstorm potential
followed by a wind shift to northerly in the wake of the front.
Does look like a period of fresh northerlies Thursday into Thursday
evening before high pressure settles into the western lakes region
allowing for a return to primarily a Land/Lake breeze regime next
Illinois...beach hazards statement...ilz006-ilz014...7 am Monday to 7 PM
In...beach hazards statement...inz001...7 am Monday to 7 PM Monday.
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