Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus63 klmk 171044
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Louisville Kentucky
644 am EDT Tue Oct 17 2017
..updated aviation discussion...
Short term...(today through wednesday)
issued at 200 am EDT Tue Oct 17 2017
High pressure is right over the region at this time, and this high
will shift slowly eastward through Wed, where it will take up
position along the mid Atlantic coast and dominate our weather for
the next several days. The calm winds over US now are likely leading
to some patches of frost in our coldest spots this morning.
Otherwise, the cold air in place up against the relatively warmer
waterways is leading to some patches of dense river fog.
For temperatures today, thicknesses increase some with the high
shifting east of US. Look for highs 2-6 degrees warmer than Monday.
Dry dewpoints likely will mean another quick drop in temperatures
this evening, but still expect readings to be a degree or two warmer
than this morning's lows. Highs Wednesday should continue the
warming trend, as a more steady south winds develops.
Long term...(wednesday night through monday)
issued at 245 am EDT Tue Oct 17 2017
Again the high pressure keeps US dry most of this period. The
question mark remains how strong that high is in terms of holding
off our next cold front for the Sunday/Monday time frame. The Gem
blasts the front in here during the day Sunday, whereas the GFS is
just a touch slower, bringing precip Sunday later in the afternoon.
The 12z Euro, however, has the ridge holding strong and forcing a
cutoff low to develop far enough southwest of the region to keep US
dry, perhaps through Monday. The run coming in now has taken out the
cutoff low, but still delays precip until late Sunday night. Will go
a little under the blended guidance, given the anticipated strength
of the ridge and the euro's and some of the better-performing
guidance calling for a little lower pops as well.
Aviation...(12z taf issuance)
issued at 644 am EDT Tue Oct 17 2017
Morning satellite imagery reveals areas of dense fog through the
river valleys, and the one aviation impact has been at bwg. Sporadic
drops to IFR will still be possible through 13z. After the fog Burns
off, VFR weather is expected the rest of the day with a light
southerly wind. The wind at bwg is more likely to be southeast or east-southeast