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FXUS63 KLMK 261054

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
654 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017


A warm sunny day is expected today courtesy of a strong southerly 
flow in between a ridge to our east and a deep trough to our west. 
South winds of 10-15 mph will gust to around 25 mph this afternoon. 
High temps should top out in the lower 80s.

Tonight - Thursday...

Tonight the upper trough will lift northeast over the central CONUS 
pushing a cold front through the Ohio Valley.  This will bring a 
decaying line of showers and t-storms through central KY/southern IN 
late tonight into Thu morning.  With most of the forcing for ascent 
getting pulled NE and limited instability, think that any storms Thu 
night will probably remain below severe limits.  However, can't rule 
out a strong storm with gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall. Lows 
tonight will range through the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Showers/storms will exit the area by Thu early afternoon with skies 
becoming partly cloudy.  Highs in the post-frontal airmass should 
range from the mid 60s to low 70s.

.Long Term...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 335 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Friday - Saturday...

Fri/Sat a low pressure system will deepen over the south central 
U.S. resulting in a warm front developing near our region.  This 
front will sharpen and wobble a bit Fri/Sat resulting in several 
precip chances for the end of the week.  Depending on the exact 
evolution of this front and the warm sector, a chance for strong 
storms could exist especially along and south of the front. Highs 
Fri/Sat will range from the upper 70s to mid 80s with bust potential 
depending on exact location of the warm front.


By Sunday we should be solidly rooted in the warm sector with the 
main cold front progged to move east through the Ohio Valley some 
time Sun night or early Mon morning (timing differences still exist 
in long range models).  1000-2000 j/kg and a strong wind profile 
could result in the potential for strong to severe storms with 
strong to damaging winds and hail along and ahead of the front. 
Sunday high temps should be similar to Fri/Sat.

Monday - Tuesday...

Showers will quickly exit the area Monday with cooler, dry weather 
expected through Tue.  High temps will fall back into the 60s/lower 
70s for the beginning of work week with lows in the 40s/low 50s.


.Aviation...(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 653 EDT Wed Apr 26 2017

The pressure gradient across the region will tighten up today as a 
cold front approaches. Winds will pick up this morning and become 
gusty by mid morning. Skies will be mostly clear through the day 
except for some cirrus passing overhead. A low level jet will 
strengthen this evening with 45-50 knots around 1400-1600 feet. Thus 
will continue to mention low level wind shear in the TAFs. As the 
cold front approaches early tomorrow the atmosphere will become more 
mixed and the low level jet will lessen over the area. Will then 
introduce showers to the forecast at SDF and BWG early Thursday 



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