Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus65 klkn 231805
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Elko Nevada
1105 am PDT Thu Mar 23 2017
Synopsis...snow continues to tapper off as the storm system
continues to move eastward.
Update...Winter Weather Advisory was allowed to expire.
Previous discussion... /issued at 202 am /
Synopsis...as low pressure continues to move through the Great
Basin today, showers will taper off west to east. Significant
snowfall is expected over parts of east-central Nevada,
especially northern Nye and White Pine counties. After a brief
break, another storm system will bring rain and snow by this
Short term...today through Saturday. Cooler air infiltrated
northern Nevada last evening but temperatures have rebounded
somewhat since the precipitaion ended. The air mass is saturated
over northern Nevada this morning and we are seeing some fog
development. IR imagery reveals an upper low circulation
approximately over Eureka at this time. Radar shows showers moving
north over neighboring Utah and showers moving south over the lkn
County warning forecast area. The Eureka area is likely receiving moderate snow showers
right now and thus far Ely has not received much precipitation.
The models are in pretty good shape for the short term period.
There will be a break tomorrow and then the next system will move
Today. A trough axis is still squirming its way through the Great
Basin. Winter weather advisories are in effect for parts of
central Nevada including southern Lander/Eureka counties as well
as northern Nye and White Pine counties. Elevations above 6000
feet will get close to a foot of snow in the 24 hours ending late
this morning. The trough axis will be shifting east today and
showers will be tapering off. High temperatures will reach around
Tonight. This will be a dry period between systems. A short wave
ridge will move over the Great Basin. Low temperatures will range
from the mid 20s to the mid 30s.
Friday through Saturday. The next storm system will blast through
the Great Basin at a faster pace than the current system. Snow
levels will likely drop to the valley floors briefly again along
a cold front as it did this past Wednesday. High temperatures will
be in the 50s. Low temperatures will be in the 30s.
Long term...Saturday night through Wednesday.
Precipitation quickly shunts off to the east by early Sunday
morning as the associated upper level low exits across The Four
Corners. A very brief ridge moves across the state for Sunday
with dry conditions for most areas. The next system drops in from
the Pacific northwest reaching Humboldt County by Sunday
evening and the rest of our County Warning Area late Sunday night into Monday.
Models remain in agreement of a SW-NE oriented frontal boundary
developing Monday afternoon roughly between Gabbs and Jarbidge
with moderate showers and possibly thunderstorm activity. The
upper level low slowly shifts east Monday night with most areas
clearing. The exception will be central NV, where shower activity
will continue for Tuesday before the associated upper low finally exits
to the southeast Tuesday night. Another brief ridge returns on
Wednesday with dry weather once again.
Aviation...snow winding down with lifting cigs across eastern and
central Nevada by late morning. Possible areas of fog near kwmc and
keko. MVFR to possible IFR conditions at in heavier snow showers at
kely. Another breezy day at kely (n-northwest 12-15g20-23kt) and ktph (n-northwest
18-25g28-35) through the afternoon hours.
Hydrology...a low pressure system will continue to bring snow to
parts of the state today. The impacts for today will be mainly
over central Nevada. After a brief break tonight, another moist
system will bring moderate valley rain and mountain snow over the
weekend. The rainfall could exacerbate flooding issues and there
will be a couple more storms between now and next week. Rivers and
creeks will likely respond upward with the additional runoff.
Bruneau river: moderate flooding is occurring.
Humboldt River - palisade: forecast for minor flooding.
Humboldt River - battle mountain: moderate flooding is occurring.
Humboldt River - comus: moderate flooding is occurring.
Marys river: minor flooding is occurring and the river is
approaching moderate flood stage.
All other monitored creeks and rivers are below minor flood stage.