Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus65 klkn 272206
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Elko Nevada
306 PM PDT Tue Jun 27 2017
Synopsis...low pressure moving far to the north over Canada will
bring some cooler air to the Great Basin over the next couple
days. There may be a few thunderstorms over the northeast part of
the state as this system passes and wind will get a little gusty.
However dry conditions will resume by the latter part of the week
with temperatures rising back into the 90s across much of the
Short term...there is very good agreement in the models for the
short term period. Basically, it will be dry and warm, however
there are a few nuances possible.
Tonight through Wednesday morning. This will be an uneventful
period. Low pressure will be dropping due south from northern
Canada to bring some cooler air to the lkn County warning forecast area. Some moisture
will creep into northeast Nevada overnight ahead of a shortwave
lobe extending from the low center. Low temperatures will range
from the mid 40s to the mid 50s, about where they should be for
this time of year.
Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening. Low pressure over
Canada will begin moving east. A shortwave axis extending from
this feature will swing through the northeast part of Nevada,
triggering a few thunderstorms primarily over Elko County. Winds
will gust into the 30s outside of any thunderstorm activity.
Precipitable water values indicate ts will not be big rain-
producers and all areas of Elko County could be fair game for an
isolated strike. Cape values are pegging above 600 j/kg in a small
area of northern Elko County so lightning could be concentrated
over the Jarbidge Wilderness late afternoon and then move off into
eastern Elko County by early evening before dissipating. High
temperatures will be in the 80s.
Midnight Wednesday through Thursday. This should be a dry period
with a warming trend. Low pressure will be exiting east allowing
the Pacific Ridge to expand over the western Continental U.S.. there is minor
differences in the models as to the strength of the exiting low
center still over Canada, which could influence the amount of
ridging that will expand into the Great Basin. However at this
juncture the effects may be negligible. Low temperatures will
range from the 40s to around 50 degrees. High temperatures will be
in the 80s.
Long term...Thursday night through Tuesday
Weak northwest flow in place at the start of the long term with
Pacific Ridge axis just to the west and a trof digging into the
central conus. The ridge axis shifts over Nevada on Friday,
raising temperatures a bit.
Beginning Saturday, models drop out of sync some with the GFS
cutting off from the main flow in California a weak upper low and
the ec bringing a shortwave through Nevada. Neither scenario
looks to have enough moisture present so dry weather looks to stay
Further model divergence occurs over the weekend with the ec
building the ridge over the west and the GFS beginning to dig a
trof off of the coast. What the models do agree on is that
temperatures will be hot whether from the ec higher heights or
the GFS southwest flow with most valleys well into the 90's.
If a trof does in fact suppress the ridge, there could be a
frontal passage on July 4th, but forecast confidence is very low
at this time.
Aviation...VFR cigs and ceilings expected through Wednesday. West
to northwest winds will gust to around 30 mph all terminals on
Wednesday afternoon and evening. There is a low probability for
an isolated thunderstorm in the vicinity of keko Wednesday
Fire weather...mostly dry and stable conditions will continue
through tonight. Mainly dry variety thunderstorms are expected to
develop over Elko County Wednesday afternoon and evening. Wind
gusts will exceed 30 mph with humidity values less than 15 percent
over all zones except fire zones 467 and 468. High elevations of
zone 469 may see wind gusts exceeding 30 mph Wednesday as well.
A red flag warning will be in effect for all but those three
zones. The remainder of the week should be sunny and dry with a
red flag warning from 11 am to 9 PM PDT Wednesday for central
Lander and Eureka counties-eastern Elko County-northern Nye
County/Lander and Eureka counties south of Highway 50-White Pine