Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Elko Nevada
200 am PDT sun Aug 28 2016
Synopsis...dry and warm conditions are expected across Nevada
for the weekend and the first portions of the next week. There
will be a cooling trend starting midweek with several low pressure
system that will influence the area. There will also be the
return of gusty winds and convection with the low pressure
Short term...tonight through Monday.
An upper level ridge will persist over Nevada while slowly
progressing eastward for the short term. This will bring a dry
southwesterly flow across the state. The dry air will cause mostly
sunny skies across the state with the exception of south eastern
White Pine County which may see some fair afternoon clouds along
the mountains caused by a small amount of lingering moisture. The
pressure gradient will be weak with the high pressure which will
cause light winds across the state.
Long term...Monday night through Saturday. The models seem to
be in agreement with the general pattern. The atmosphere is
beginning to shape up like an early fall pattern as it becomes
more progressive. A low pressure system will be dropping south
from the Aleutian Island Area. How deep this system eventually
gets modeled will make a difference in timing, cold air and winds.
There are tropical influxes from the Atlantic and Pacific realms
that will make consistent modeling difficult in the coming days.
Monday night. This will likely be a dry period. Low pressure will
begin to descend southward from the Aleutian Islands. A pretty
significant shortwave lobe will be extending from the low over the
eastern Pacific. In general, high pressure will still be in
control over the Great Basin. There could be some high-elevation
showers developing over far western Humboldt County towards
Tuesday morning. Low temperatures will range from the mid 40s to
the mid 50s.
Tuesday through Thursday morning. Mean low pressure will move
near the Canadian coastline. The strongest shortwave axis will
still be off the coast of California however a shortwave lobe will
also pass over the western Continental U.S. As the pressure gradient
tightens. Winds will increase and mountain showers could be had by
all within the Great Basin. High temperatures will be in the 80s. Low
temperatures will generally be in the 40s.
Thursday afternoon through Saturday. The mean low pressure area
will rapidly move east across Canada to reposition north of the
Dakotas. At this juncture, it appears that a dry cold front will
pass through the lkn County warning forecast area late Saturday. High-elevation showers
will be possible but quantitative precipitation forecast is noticeably absent from the models at
this point. Winds will still be gusty. High temperatures will be
in the 80s. Low temperatures will generally be in the 40s.
Aviation...VFR conditions at all terminals for the forecast
period with light winds.
Fire weather...mostly dry and warm through Monday. Winds weaken
through Monday as an upper high pressure ridge forms over the
district. Through Monday...relative humidity recovery will become increasingly
poor as drier air moves in and temps warm a little.
Outlook for midweek:
A short wave trough will move across Nevada on Tuesday which will
cause gusty winds near 30 mph with relative humidity in the lows tens across
fire zone 467. On Wednesday this trough will have transitioned out
of Nevada but another system will deepen across western Continental U.S.
Which will bring gusty winds across zones 455 and 457 for the rest
of the work week. The winds will also be near 30mph with min relative humidity
in the mid teens. These system will also bring in some moisture
which can initiate some dry thunderstorms across Nevada.