Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus65 klkn 171129
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Elko Nevada
329 am PST Fri Nov 17 2017
Synopsis...gusty winds and rain/snow showers will end from
northwest to southeast this afternoon into early evening. An
influx of dry and colder air will allow skies to clear out for
the weekend and provide a couple of very chilly nights. Another
weaker system will produce more showers across mainly northern
Nevada on Monday. Expect above normal temperatures next week with
additional chances of showers across mainly northern parts of the
state mid to late week, including Thanksgiving day.
Short term...Friday through Sunday.
Winter Storm Warning for Ruby Mountains and Winter Weather
Advisory for northern Elko County will be allowed to continue
through 4 PM PDT this Friday afternoon where the most adverse
winter conditions are likely this morning. Some areas could see a
quick freeze up on roadways this morning where precipitation is
and has already fallen. Wind gusts to around 40 mph are likely at
Ely and Tonopah with the passage of a cold front with locally
much higher gusts possible up in the Ruby Mountains. Gusty winds
and rain/snow showers will quickly diminish from northwest to
southeast this afternoon and early evening as an upper trough axis
and strong shortwave sweep across northern and eastern Nevada.
A couple of very chilly nights are on the way for tonight and
Saturday night. Minimum temperatures will plummet into the teens
and single digits both nights with some of the normally cold spots
in northern Elko County down near or a bit below zero. Also, areas
of low stratus and fog will likely develop the next couple of
nights in some of the valleys and especially over the larger
reservoirs. Afternoon temperatures will remain in the 40s to near
50 degrees on Saturday despite abundant sunshine and light winds,
but begin to warm back up into the 50s on Sunday as high clouds
increase ahead of the next Pacific system.
Long term...Sunday night through next Friday.
Models do not agree well at all Sunday night through
Tuesday...when most of the precip should fall. Therefore have
taken a conservative approach to pops and qpf/wx. Temps will
generally warm through the long term period.
Big story is what happens on Thanksgiving day and into the
The models come into alignment with each other after Tuesday with
a strong upper high over baja and ridge axis extending into
eastern Nevada and Utah. Result is warmer temps, lightly moist
flow into the Great Basin Wednesday, and drier after that. So,
heading west on Wednesday traveling could be a bit wet. Traveling
east...drier. Thanksgiving day could be cloudy but a bit warm with
highs in the 50s. There is just a slight chance for some light
rain each day on Friday and thereafter.
Aviation...mostly VFR at kwmc and keko, with occasional MVFR
ceilings and visibility as rain turns to snow Friday. Kwmc will
begin to get out of the precip first, then keko. Kely could drop
to MVFR Friday afternoon as snow develops there. Ktph will remain
VFR with possible vcsh. Winds will turn from southwest/west at 20
mph gusting to 30 mph at kwmc, keko, and kely, gusting to 40 mph
at ktph. Winds turn northwest during the day and diminish after
sunset. Note: the much colder air on top of wet runways and
equipment, etc, could cause a flash freeze Friday night and
Saturday morning. Black ice could form on asphalt and Concrete,
with ice deposits on other objects.
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday for northern Elko
Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST Friday for Ruby
Mountains/East Humboldt Range.