Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus65 klkn 161034
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Elko Nevada
234 am PST Mon Jan 16 2017
Synopsis...expect freezing fog to hang around today and possibly
Tuesday without much temperature change from day to night. A
series of low pressure systems will begin to affect the Silver
state by late Tuesday and subsequently weather will be unsettled
through next weekend.
Short term...Martin Luther King Jr day through Wednesday.
Fog or low stratus continues to hang over much of the state this
morning. Temperatures have been only varying from day to night by
3-6 degrees where fog persists, generally in the 20s. However one
report came in with -10 degrees last night up in The Wild Horse,
so where the fog is absent, it is very cold out there. Conditions
are otherwise dry with a synoptic trough over the conus,
stretching from the Baja Peninsula to the plains. Stagnant
conditions will hold until this system moves out late Tuesday or
Martin Luther King Jr day through Tuesday.
Dry conditions will continue. The trough over the western Continental U.S.
Will stick around and delay intrusion by the developing moist flow
off the Pacific. Temperatures will also be persistent as they
have been the past few days with little diurnal change, explicitly
due to the fog layer. When the stratus layer breaks, as it may
Tuesday afternoon in some spots, temperatures could soar to 40
degrees. However high temperatures will generally be in the 20s.
Low temperatures will range from the single digits across northern
Nevada to the 20s elsewhere.
Tuesday night through Wednesday.
A low pressure trough axis will drop down along the Pacific coast
and push the Continental U.S. Trough east. This should break up the stagnant
air over Nevada although there are some inconsistencies between
the models about how fast the moisture from this system enters the
lkn County warning forecast area. There is a 160kt jet on the backside of the Pacific
trough that will try to stretch it towards Southern California,
re-orienting the moisture core over the sierras once again,
placing the lkn County warning forecast area in the shadowed region. Backed off on the
eastward progression of pops each period. Low temperatures will be
in the 20s. High temperatures will be in the 30s.
Long term...Wednesday night through next Sunday. The weather
continues to look active during the long term period. Models are
showing a trough advancing across California and Nevada during the
Wednesday night through Thursday time frame. Snow levels will
reach the valley floors by mid to late Thursday across all of
northern and central Nevada. Highs will be in the mid to upper
Thursday night through the weekend. Another system will be on the
way during this time. Temperatures will be cool with lows Friday
morning being in the teens to maybe the 20s. By Saturday and
Sunday, model solutions depict a large upper low over the West
Coast. There are some issues with position and timing, but the
story will continue to be an active time across the area with
cooler than normal temperatures.
Aviation...moisture will continue to remain trapped under the
upper level with low stratus and areas of freezing fog persisting
at all taf sites except ktph. Look for MVFR to IFR conditions at
the sites during the day, with ceilings around 1k to 1.5k feet. Vsbys
will be at or above 6sm.