Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 klix 231739
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
1139 am CST Thu Nov 23 2017
VFR ceiling and visibility unlimited conditions all terminals next 24-30 hours. 24/rr
Previous discussion... /issued 343 am CST Thu Nov 23 2017/
a cool and pleasant Thanksgiving day is in store for the forecast
area. No major changes have been made in the short or long term
of the forecast this morning. The quiet weather continues for US
through the remainder of the week and into next week. Deep layer
northwest flow will remain in control of the area through Friday
night. This flow pattern will keep a very dry and very stable
airmass in place across the region. Expect highs today to struggle
to reach much above the low 60s across most of the forecast area.
Clear skies should allow for another night of radiational cooling
tonight...lows will once again drop into the 30s for a large
portion of the forecast area. Only areas immediately south of Lake
Pontchartrain and close to the Louisiana coast will remain the
lower to mid 40s tonight. Temperatures will start to moderate this
A front will move through the forecast area Saturday, but with no
moisture around this will only reinforce the dry air mass that
will be in place through the weekend. Temperatures should warm
close to seasonal norms near 70 degrees in advance of the front
Saturday afternoon, but another round of cold air advection
Saturday night and Sunday will push temperatures back to around 5
degrees below average for the rest of the weekend. High pressure
moves across the southeast through early next week. Southerly flow
will then come back into play by Tuesday. This will help bring
temps back up and increase moisture across the region. As stated
in last forecast update, guidance is still in disagreement about
timing, placement and progression of a system expected to impact
the forecast area in the Wednesday-Thursday timeframe. Have went
with a blend of guidance and a slight chance of showers through
this period. 13/mh
VFR through taf cycle.
winds will begin to ease slowly today. Advisories will be allowed to
expire and caution flags raised through noon for most coastal
waters. Winds will continue to ease through the remainder of the
week becoming light northerly by Friday and variable by Saturday as
high pressure settles across the northern Gulf. A reinforcing front
will move through Sunday night into Monday and will cause winds to
rise to around 15kt for Monday but this will be short lived as
return flow will become established by Monday night into Tuesday as
high pressure moves east. Southerly winds will slowly rise into
Wednesday ahead of the next cold front expected in the area during
the day Wed.
dss code: blue.
Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.
Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
high visibility event.
Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = high impacts; slight to moderate risk severe; nearby tropical
events; hazmat or other large episodes.
Red = full engagement for moderate risk of severe and/or
direct tropical threats; events of National significance.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
mcb 59 33 66 40 / 0 0 0 0
btr 60 34 66 41 / 0 0 0 0
asd 62 35 66 41 / 0 0 0 0
msy 62 44 65 46 / 0 0 0 0
gpt 62 39 66 46 / 0 0 0 0
pql 63 36 67 43 / 0 0 0 0