Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 klix 260845
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
345 am CDT Mon Jun 26 2017
thunderstorms are still ongoing for those along the immediate
coast this morning. This is where the front is stalled at the
moment. It should get a weak push to move it into the near shore
waters later this morning giving those along the coast a break as
well. Activity will remain along and south of this boundary
through Tuesday. And most of the area should enjoy some much
needed dry conditions. The dp temps will begin to rise as the
isodrosotherm gradient begins its treck north again starting
Tuesday night. But, dp temps are not expected to be around 80 like
they were before. Instead around 70 will be muggy but tolerable.
Dp temps in the upper 70s to around 80 look to hold off until the
weekend. The pattern looks to mirror a normal Summer regime
through this week with basically hit and miss sh/ts each day with
a diurnal fluctuation in development.
There is a hint of the deeper tropical moisture over the western
Gulf moving into the area by Wednesday &/or Thursday as the upper
trough over the northeast sharpens and gently digs to the
southwest over East Texas forcing this area northeast. This may
give what could be the highest chance of sh/ts for the week.
Models are differing a bit at the moment on this but synoptically
everything fits for this to occur.
A lingering frontal boundary along the coast of Louisiana is causing
showers to form along the southeast Louisiana coastline. This front
could spark off some additional convection after 16z near khum.
Thunderstorms in the vicinity wording remains in the forecast to reflect this risk during the
day. At the remaining terminals, a drier and more stable airmass
will remain in place. Expect to see prevailing VFR conditions at
all of these terminals through the forecast period.
A cold front is located over the coastal waters this morning,
serving as a focus for shower activity. Surface high pressure will
begin to build in from the north later today. The aforementioned
frontal zone is expected to retreat north as a warm front late
Tuesday with onshore flow becoming established across the coastal
waters for the remainder of the week.
Dss code: blue.
Activities: monitoring Hydro/convective trends
Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.
Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
high visibility event.
Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = high impacts; slight to moderate risk severe; nearby tropical
events; hazmat or other large episodes.
Red = full engagement for moderate risk of severe and/or
direct tropical threats; events of National significance.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
mcb 87 67 88 67 / 10 10 20 10
btr 88 69 89 70 / 20 10 30 10
asd 88 67 88 68 / 20 10 20 20
msy 88 72 88 73 / 20 10 30 20
gpt 86 70 87 72 / 20 10 20 20
pql 87 66 88 69 / 20 10 20 20