Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 klix 162018
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
318 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017
what a difference a day makes! Temperatures behind last night's
cold front have been running 10 to 15 degrees lower than the same
time yesterday. Most places have reached the lower 70s and likely
will only see another degree or two of warming.
The sun has come out in most places as well with the bulk of the
clouds now located over the Gulf of Mexico. Residual clouds should
continue to clear through the remainder of the afternoon.
Our coolest night since early may is on tap tonight as clear skies
and low dewpoints allow for efficient radiative cooling.
Forecasting lows in the upper 40s to around 50 degrees for
northern areas and through the river parishes. Lows will be a few
degrees higher - in the mid to upper 50s - for most of the South
Shore. Once the sun comes up, a real chamber of Commerce day is
in store for tomorrow. Expect mostly clear skies and afternoon
temperatures topping out in the mid 70s.
Warming trend begins Wednesday as mid and upper level ridging
moves eastward across the area. The high should keep the local
weather relatively quiet through the end of the week. By week's
end, the ridge should be centered over the southeastern conus,
which will put the local area on the periphery of the ridge where
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected.
Still significant differences in how the Euro and GFS handle the
next frontal system. Both models continue to indicate a low will
become closed off in the base of an upper level trough as it digs
into Texas, but the placement and strength of this low varies
significantly between the two models. By late Sunday the Euro has
a 567 dm closed upper low over northeast Texas, while the GFS has
a 582 dm low over south Texas. These differences could have
significant ramifications on the local weather. The current
forecast is not much different from the previous forecast and
generally represents a cold front timing between the two models.
The forecast will likely need to be adjusted in the coming days as
the situation becomes clearer.
VFR conditions has settled into each terminal this afternoon. Brisk
north winds with gusts will prevail through 23z for most sites.
Elevated winds will prevail through 11z Tuesday for knew and kmsy.
Winds will finally abate after 15z Tuesday.
strong cold air advection will continue through tonight and winds
will remain elevated over warm coastal waters. As a result, Small
Craft Advisory conditions are expected to continue across all
coastal waters through tonight with north winds 20-25kt. Winds
will shift to NE and ease a bit Tuesday to around 15kt. These
conditions should remain through Thursday with some diurnal
fluctuation in speed. Easterly winds 15-20kt will begin Friday and
gradually move around to southeast through the weekend with wind speeds
gradually rising to possibly 20kt.
Surface pattern a high over the southern Appalachians to Louisiana
and lowered pressure over southwest Gulf and western Caribbean will
maintain an east to southeast flow over the coastal waters through
next weekend. Several weak embedded waves will maintain a threat of
showers Tuesday through Thursday should remain from the coast to
well offshore, keeping inland waterways relatively shower free. A
gradual northward transition of sh/ts should begin by Thursday into
the weekend and should begin to affect the inland waters as early as
Friday through the weekend.
dss code: green.
Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.
Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
high visibility event.
Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = high impacts; slight to moderate risk severe; nearby tropical
events; hazmat or other large episodes.
Red = full engagement for moderate risk of severe and/or
direct tropical threats; events of National significance.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
mcb 47 75 49 78 / 0 0 0 0
btr 48 77 51 80 / 0 0 0 0
asd 49 77 52 79 / 0 0 0 0
msy 57 75 62 79 / 0 0 0 0
gpt 52 77 54 79 / 0 0 0 0
pql 48 77 50 79 / 0 0 0 0
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 am CDT Tuesday for gmz530-532-534-
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 am CDT Tuesday for gmz532-534-536-