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fxus64 klix 292057 
afdlix

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
357 PM CDT Mon may 29 2017

Short term...
unsettled pattern is expected to persist through the entire
forecast period. A frontal boundary is expected to stall and
weaken over the forecast area. Multiple impulses are expected to
ride along the boundary which for the most part will be diurnally
driven for the next few days. This boundary will serve as a focus
for convection. Shortwave ridging tries to build into the area
Tuesday night and Wednesday. Will continue to carry mention of
thunderstorms through Wednesday, but pops will be lower Tuesday
night and Wednesday. Timing of clouds and precipitation will be the
determining factor in high temperatures over the next few days.
Temperatures should stay in the mid to upper 80s through the
first half of the week.

Long term...
Thursday should be somewhat similar to Wednesday with somewhat
lower pops than the surrounding days, before deeper moisture
returns with impulses moving through the southwesterly mid level
flow across the area. Scattered convection is expected for the
weekend with the usual diurnally driven timing. A front
approaches the forecast area this weekend. Right now it looks
fairly wet for late weekend. Will keep an eye on this as the
weekend draws closer. Temperatures near normal for that time
period. 13/35

&&

Aviation...
after morning convection, atmosphere taking a Little Break in the
afternoon. Have maintained vicinity showers for taf sites this
afternoon, thunderstorms in the vicinity for for coastal taf sites. Ceilings are running
above 12kft and breaks in overcast will allow surface heating and
cu field development but remaining above 4kft through Tuesday 00z.
The same conditions are expected to move in again overnight. The
number of thunderstorms and rain may increase by Tuesday late morning, especially
for kbtr, kmsy, knew and khum.

&&

Marine...
no real changes to the forecast this afternoon. Light to
moderate onshore flow will prevail across the coastal waters
through the upcoming week as a ridge of high pressure remains over
the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida. A weak cold front will
stall becoming more diffuse through mid week. A general weakness
in the atmosphere will remain through at least Wednesday. Somewhat
of a break in activity may occur Thursday and Friday but chances
of sh/ts will once again be on the rise as we move into next
weekend. Winds and seas will be much higher in and near
thunderstorms throughout the week.

&&

Decision support...
dss code...blue.
Deployed...none.
Activation...none.
Activities...monitoring Mississippi River.

Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action
blue = long fused watch/warning/advisory in effect or high
visibility event
yellow = heightened impacts with short fused
watch/warning/advisory issuances; radar support
Orange = high impacts - slight to moderate risk severe; nearby
tropical events; hazmat or other large episodes
red = full engagement for moderate tonight risk severe
and/or direct tropical threats; events of National
significance

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
mcb 67 80 66 83 / 60 70 30 60
btr 68 81 68 85 / 60 60 30 60
asd 70 82 69 84 / 50 50 30 50
msy 73 82 72 84 / 50 60 20 50
gpt 71 82 71 83 / 50 50 30 40
pql 69 84 68 85 / 50 50 20 40

&&

Lix watches/warnings/advisories...
la...none.
GM...none.

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