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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service New Orleans la
403 PM CDT Thursday Jul 28 2016

Short term...
showers and thunderstorms are ongoing over southwest Mississippi
and the Florida parishes this afternoon. Expect these showers and
storms to diminish quickly after sunset. A weak upper level
system is going to be over the area over the next few days and
that will also suppress the high pressure over the area so expect
convection to be on the increase over the weekend as there will be
little to no convective inhibition over the forecast area. Will
carry 40 to near 60 percent pops for the weekend during the
daytime hours. Overnight offshore convection should peak around
daybreak. Temperatures will be lower 90s during the day and lows
in the mid to upper 70s through the weekend.

Long term...
not much change in the forecast from this morning's package. The
overall upper level pattern is expected shift slightly with
ridging in the plains states increasing, and the ridge over the
eastern Gulf and Florida easing. However, this pattern still has a
broad area of lower pressure remaining in place across the central
Gulf Coast for the first half of next week. This pattern should support
the continued development of diurnally induced showers and
thunderstorms each day. We will continue to carry 30 to 50 percent
rain chances through the period with convection diminishing after
sunset and nocturnal coastal storms. The tropics are beginning to
start up. We are watching two areas for tropical development well
out in the Atlantic. One system is expected to be near Puerto Rico
by early next week as it is moving very fast...in fact it is
moving so fast it actually is decreasing its chance of becoming a
well organized system. As of right now we are not expecting
anything out of it as it should remain an open wave. We will
continue to watch these areas as the week GOES on. 13/mh

&&

Aviation...
expect VFR conditions to prevail outside of thunderstorms.
Convection should diminish after 23z this evening.

&&

Marine...
not much change in the forecast. Will have to monitor convection
that develops with the upper level shortwave/ vorticity maxima
that is moving west- northwest across the north central/central
Gulf of Mexico, however the models suggest most of this will be in
a weakening or dissipating stage as it enters a subsidence zone in
the coastal waters.

Away from convection, prevailing winds will remain generally 10
knots or less with seas 2 feet or less due to a persistent ridge
of high pressure through early next week. 22/dew point

&&

Decision support...
dss code: green.
Deployed: none.
Activation: none.
Activities: Jefferson Parish public safety support for Grand Isle.

Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.
Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
high visibility event.
Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning
or advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = high impacts; slight to moderate risk severe; nearby
tropical events; hazmat or other large episodes.
Red = full engagement for moderate risk of severe and/or
direct tropical threats; events of National significance.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
mcb 72 93 74 92 / 20 40 20 50
btr 74 94 74 93 / 20 40 20 50
asd 76 94 78 93 / 20 40 20 50
msy 77 92 78 92 / 20 40 20 50
gpt 78 91 79 91 / 20 40 20 40
pql 76 91 77 91 / 20 40 20 40

&&

Lix watches/warnings/advisories...
la...none.
GM...none.
MS...none.
GM...none.
&&

$$

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