Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 klix 250151 aaa
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service New Orleans la
851 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017
will cancel the Flash Flood Watch at this time as this evening's
convection continues to dissipate. Convective allowing models do
show some small isolated showers and thunderstorms possible
overnight, so will lower pops to 20% over land areas and 30% along
and near the coast. No other changes at this time.
VFR conditions expected for the overnight hours but essentially a
repeat of this afternoon's weather for Sunday. Convection to
develop on interactions with synoptic scale frontal zone draped
across the Gulf states and local Gulf and lake breezes. While some
isolated thunderstorms and rain may develop close to daybreak near the coast,
coverage should increase to pretty large coverage with daytime
heating by 18z then become anvil decay light rain in the afternoon
hours. Storm motions may become erratic on outflows, but general
flow pattern should be northeastward. Downburst gust potential
around 35 knots Sunday. 24/rr
overall not too much in the way of changes in the
sounding this evening. Very moist airmass still in place with pws at
2.19. Overall a very weak wind field over the area with Max wind
only around 30 knots in the mid levels. Still decent cape to work
with. Sounding got up to around 6.9mb this evening at a height
of 33882m. /Cab/
dss code: blue.
Activities: monitoring Hydro/convective trends
Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.
Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = high impacts; slight to moderate risk severe; nearby
tropical events; hazmat or other large episodes.
Red = full engagement for moderate risk of severe and/or
direct tropical threats; events of National significance.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
mcb 72 84 67 85 / 50 60 20 10
btr 73 85 70 85 / 50 70 20 10
asd 75 85 71 85 / 50 60 20 20
msy 76 85 74 83 / 50 70 50 20
gpt 75 85 72 84 / 50 60 20 20
pql 74 85 71 84 / 50 60 20 20