Scientific Forecaster Discussion
000 FXUS64 KLCH 251742 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1242 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017 .DISCUSSION... For 18z TAF issuance. && .AVIATION... Fairly straight forward forecast today with strong srly winds being the main issue through the period. Sfc obs show elevated winds already ongoing as the region lies between high pressure centered over the n-cntl Gulf and low pressure over the Plains. Looks like the gradient is expected to remain tight through the period despite the sfc ridge pushing ewd, while forecast time- height sections indicate slightly stronger flow aloft for tomorrow which will help speeds run even higher tomorrow. Otherwise limited moisture noted which should keep clouds scattered at most. 25 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1101 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017/ UPDATE... Light southerly flow already returning across the area as surface high pressure shifts off to the east. A few clouds above 3000 feet continued to ride the leading edge of moisture return. No changes needed to forecast other than to tick up a few more low clouds. No significant changes...therefore let the forecast ride. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 631 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017/ AVIATION...Southerly winds will become reestablished today with high pressure advancing east of the area. While the southerlies will bring a gradual increase of low level moisture, the mid and upper levels will remain dry on a continued northwest flow. VFR to prevail. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 335 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017/ DISCUSSION... Weather map depicts upper low centered over the mid MS River valley this morning with northwesterly flow situated across the area. Surface ridge is currently along the Sabine River with generally clear skies. Temperatures away from the coast are in the low to mid 50s with temperature along the coast in the 60s. Surface ridge will continue shifting east across the area today with southerly and southwesterly winds returning to the area. Forecast remains unchanged through the remainder of the week into the first part of the weekend. The area will continue to see a warming and moistening trend as the storm track remains across the central plains. Temperatures by Saturday will be approaching 90. Some changes to the forecast for the later half of the weekend into next week. The front looks to be a little slower than forecast this time yesterday, therefore rain chances were lowered just a bit for Sunday. By Sunday night into Memorial Day the front does move into the region with a good chance for showers and thunderstorms. The front is forecast to hang up near the coast with a good chance for thunderstorms through the remainder of the forecast, especially during the daytime hours. MARINE... Southerly winds will return to the northern Gulf and become brisk at times. This will continue for the next several days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 85 66 89 73 / 0 0 0 10 LCH 84 72 86 76 / 0 0 10 10 LFT 85 69 87 75 / 0 0 0 10 BPT 85 73 87 77 / 0 0 10 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None.