Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 klch 251551
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles la
951 am CST Sat Feb 25 2017
clear skies as high pressure has settled over the region behind
the latest frontal system that moved through last night. Afternoon
temps tdy look to be about 20 degrees cooler today than yesterday.
Winds are a bit brisk but will begin to settled down. Current
zones are fine... no updates planned.
Previous discussion... /issued 524 am CST Sat Feb 25 2017/
for the 25/12z taf issuance.
high pressure building down from the plains will be the dominant
weather player today. North to northeast breezes will filter in
drier air. This will allow VFR conditions to prevail.
Previous discussion... /issued 420 am CST Sat Feb 25 2017/
this morning's satellite imagery and surface analysis shows a
surface cold front having exited our County Warning Area. High pressure currently
located over the Central Plains is forecast to build south and
east through the day today. Northerly flow will usher in cooler
Continental air and the County Warning Area could actually see high temperatures
a few degrees below normal for the end of February. The drier
airmass will remain in place through Sunday afternoon which will
mean great weather conditions for outdoor mardi gras activities.
The surface high pressure is forecast to shift east of the area
Sunday afternoon resulting in return flow, increasing low level
moisture, and the return of above normal temperatures. A vort Max
will progress across the region during the day on Monday
resulting in an environment favorable for ascent and the
development of showers and thunderstorms. While some thunderstorm
activity could linger into fat Tuesday, the best forcing for
precipitation is forecast to remain north of the area so will only
carry slight chance/chance pops.
A shortwave trough is forecast to move across the Central Plains
Tuesday into Wednesday and result in the development of a low
pressure system. The surface cold front associated with this low
is forecast to move through the area on Wednesday resulting in
increased chances for precipitation. Another area of high pressure
is forecast to build in behind the front for the end of next week
and bring another period of dry conditions with near normal
high pressure will build eastward today resulting in offshore flow
over the coastal waters. Onshore flow is expected to redevelop on
Sunday in advance of an area of low pressure approaching from the
west. Winds will also increase during the day on Sunday and small
craft exercise caution or small craft advisories may be needed
during the afternoon and evening. Showers and thunderstorms are
likely on Monday as the system moves eastward across the region.
Drier conditions are expected on Tuesday before the next system
approaches on Wednesday bringing another chance for showers and
Preliminary point temps/pops...
aex 61 37 70 59 / 0 0 10 60
lch 65 42 70 63 / 0 0 10 50
lft 65 42 71 62 / 0 0 10 50
bpt 66 47 71 65 / 0 0 10 50
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for gmz450-452-455-470-