Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 klch 191441
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles la
941 am CDT Thu Oct 19 2017
Update...high clouds are streaming across the region this
morning, but overall pleasant conditions are expected this
morning. Dry and warm with highs in the low to mid 80s. No changes
are needed at this time.
Previous discussion... /issued 705 am CDT Thu Oct 19 2017/
19/12z taf issuance.
considerable high clouds are streaming acrs the region early this
morning, over an otherwise dry airmass in place. Moisture near the
sfc remains shallow, but some patchy fog capable of producing MVFR
vsbys can be expected at Ara, while brief IFR vsbys are possible
at aex. High clouds are expected to scatter out today, with
little, if any, low clouds. Moisture will begin to increase and
deepen from the southwest this evening as a shortwave trough
approaches from the west, bringing scattered/broken VFR cigs to bpt
tonight. Elsewhere, VFR is expected to prevail through the period.
Winds will be easterly 5 to 10 knots.
Previous discussion... /issued 410 am CDT Thu Oct 19 2017/
skies were fair overnight with temperatures noticeably warmer
overnight with temperatures in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Thin highs
clouds were streaming in from Texas while some lower clouds were
trying to work in along the coastal areas.
Aloft...a ridge of high pressure was over the region with troughing
across the eastern and western United States. A weaker short wave
trough was moving eastward this morning across New Mexico and
extreme West Texas into Mexico. At the surface....high pressure
across the eastern United States was still ridging westward all the
way into our area.
Not expecting much today as the atmosphere continues to remain
rather dry even though we will see a steady but slow increase in the
moisture as east to southeasterly flow begins to bring in higher
dewpoint air off especially off the Gulf of Mexico. The best low
level moisture will still be shunned off to our west into lower and
central Texas. The upper ridge should continue to slide eastward
today as the shortwave trough approaches from West Texas. So, we are
generally just expecting a continued warmup today with clouds
increasing mainly where the low level moisture gets established into
Texas. Overnight lows will continue to climb into the weekend.
Pops look to increase as we get into the weekend as the trof
begins to approach the region from the west, with most of the
forecast area getting a good chance for pops beginning across
southeast Texas and spreading eastward into Louisiana early
Saturday morning into Sunday. A cold front along with sfc
cyclogenesis over the area should generate showers and
thunderstorms that will continue until the cold front has passed.
The front should move across southeast Texas Saturday afternoon
and through Louisiana by Sunday night.
The remainder of the forecast period looks dry with a more nwrly
flow aloft developing behind the trof. A secondary cool front is
progged to cross the area late in the day Tuesday into Tuesday
night helping to firmly entrench this dry trend through the end of
next week. Temperatures are expected to return to our recent
trend of mins in the 50s/maxes in the 70s.
Marine... elevated easterly flow today will become southeasterly
over the weekend as the pressure gradient tightens due to a surface
low deepening across the area. Brisk offshore flow will develop
behind a cold front Sunday night into Monday. A secondary surge of
offshore flow can be expected Tuesday night into Wednesday as
another fronts sweeps across the marine waters.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
aex 83 58 84 65 / 10 10 10 20
lch 85 65 85 70 / 10 10 20 20
lft 85 61 86 70 / 10 10 10 20
bpt 83 67 83 71 / 10 10 30 20
GM...small craft exercise caution until 7 PM CDT this evening for