Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 klch 221137
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles la
637 am CDT Thu Jun 22 2017
for the 22/12z taf issuance.
the center of Tropical Storm Cindy is moving through southwest
Louisiana and will continue to move just east of the Sabine River
through the day. Rain bands around the system will affect the
terminals, with gusty winds and occasional moderate to heavy
rainfall. MVFR to IFR conditions will occur through the day.
Improvement is noted after 23/00z with conditions up to VFR
Previous discussion... /issued 525 am CDT Thu Jun 22 2017/
per the latest update from the National Hurricane Center, Tropical
Storm Cindy made landfall between Cameron and Port Arthur during
the early morning hours this morning. Cindy is currently moving to
the north and a turn toward the northeast is expected throughout
the day today.
The primary threat for our region today will continue to be the
potential for heavy rainfall associated with the tropical
rainbands to produce flash flooding. Three to five inches of
rainfall with localized higher amounts will be possible with the
Tropical storm force wind gusts will be the secondary hazard for
the region today. Tropical Storm Cindy is forecast to quickly
weaken through the day as the center moves onshore. Therefore,
the likelihood of tropical storm force winds will steadily decline
throughout the day. However, the pressure gradient over the
region will result in winds of 20-30 miles per hour continuing through this
evening. A Wind Advisory is in effect for the inland portions of
County Warning Area and will likely be expanded to include areas currently covered
by the Tropical Storm Warning if/when it is dropped later on
today. The steady southerly fetch of winds to the east of the
center of circulation will also result in continued minor coastal
In addition to heavy rains and gusty winds, there will also be a
tornado threat with the tropical rainbands progressing across the
region today. While it can't be ruled out for the entire area,
the greatest potential for a tornado will be for areas east of a
line extending roughly from Gueydan north to Alexandria.
The remnants of Cindy are forecast to lift out of the region this
evening and into the Tennessee River valley by Friday afternoon.
However, abundant tropical moisture will remain in place through
the weekend resulting in elevated chances for showers and
the center of Tropical Storm Cindy has made landfall this morning
and will continue to lift to the north and northeast through
today. However, a strong pressure gradient will result in winds
and seas remaining elevated. Small Craft Advisory criteria
conditions are expected over the coastal waters and inland bays
and lakes through at least Friday morning. The pressure gradient
is expected to decrease through the day on Friday resulting in
improving conditions over the coastal waters.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
aex 82 76 85 75 / 90 70 70 60
lch 82 80 88 77 / 90 60 60 50
lft 83 77 86 76 / 90 50 60 40
bpt 82 79 88 77 / 80 60 50 40
la...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for laz027>033-041>045-
Tropical Storm Warning for laz041>045-052>055-073-074.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for laz027>033.
Texas...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for txz180-201-215-216-
Tropical Storm Warning for txz201-215-216-261-262.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for txz180-259-260.
GM...Tropical Storm Warning for gmz430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 am CDT Friday