Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles la
1115 PM CDT Tuesday Oct 25 2016
for the 26/06z taf issuance.
high level clouds continue to prevail over the forecast area and
expected to continue to move across the region during the
overnight period. This will likely help keep air temperatures up
some overnight. However, should be just enough cooling to let air
temperatures reach cross over dew point temperatures, especially around
sunrise, to allow patchy fog to form. Therefore, will mention
tempo groups starting around 26/09z for MVFR type visibilities.
Besides the patchy fog, VFR conditions will otherwise prevail
during the forecast period.
Previous discussion... /issued 920 PM CDT Tuesday Oct 25 2016/
Update...high clouds continue to stream across the region this
evening and this may be enough to keep widespread fog from
developing. Will keep the patchy fog mentioned in the forecast. No
changes are needed to the previous forecast at this time.
Previous discussion... /issued 340 PM CDT Tuesday Oct 25 2016/
high pressure centered over ern Canada continues to ridge swd
through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley into the sern Continental U.S....
providing a light and somewhat variable flow over the forecast
area this afternoon. Water vapor imagery shows ridging in place
over the cntl Continental U.S. Aloft...while a weak disturbance is noted
pushing out of The Rockies and into the plains states at this
time. Cirrus ahead of this feature continues to make steady ewd
progress this afternoon...affecting mainly the wrn 1/2 of the
forecast area currently. Regional 88ds remain quiet with maybe
just a stray shower or two earlier impacting the cntl Texas coast.
Again a mostly dry forecast this package. Main concern in the
early going looks to be another night of fog potential tonight
with decent radiating conditions as winds relax and temps
approach the dewpoint. Main fly in the ointment will be cirrus but
not sure exactly how much impact this will have on fog potential...
have carried over the mention of patchy fog for now. As per the
norm whatever fog that develops will burn off by mid-
morning...leaving behind a mostly sunny day. Highs again will be
running several degrees above the seasonal norms as a more onshore
flow develops behind the high which is progged to push ewd over
the next day or so.
Slim rain chances return Wednesday night and mainly Thursday as a
weak sfc wave is progged to push wwd across the nrn Gulf. Forecast
soundings indicate a little better moisture is expected to
accompany this feature...but not enough to warrant much more than
20 percent anywhere over swrn la/sern Texas. This system is progged
to weaken as it crosses and no pops have been included for
Thursday night as of now.
Thereafter ridging aloft takes hold of the forecast area once
again and our dry weather pattern resumes for the remainder of the
forecast period. Over the next several days we'll have to see how
solutions play out for a more swrly flow developing aloft by late
in the period...weakening the cap and ushering in better moisture
through the column for early next week.
a light to moderate serly/Erly flow is expected to linger over the
coastal waters as high pressure sits to our E/NE and lower
pressures are progged over the srn Gulf. These persistent Erly
winds will allow sea heights to build through the period...with
seas topping out at 5-6 feet over the offshore waters by late in
Preliminary point temps/pops...
aex 53 83 58 83 / 0 0 10 10
lch 59 83 63 83 / 0 0 10 20
lft 58 84 66 84 / 0 0 10 20
bpt 60 84 61 84 / 10 0 10 10