Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 klch 170440
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles la
1140 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017
for the 10/17/17 0600 UTC taf package.
VFR with light north-northeast winds to prevail through the period.
Previous discussion... /issued 914 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017/
skies remain clear across much of the area this evening with the
exception of lower Acadiana. This, combined with dewpoints in the
low to mid 40's should allow for efficient radiational cooling
tonight with lows falling into the upper 40's across central
Louisiana and into the low to mid 50's along the I-10 corridor.
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the offshore waters
through tomorrow morning as the stronger pressure gradient
offshore will keep winds and seas high.
The current forecast is in good shape and no changes were made.
Previous discussion... /issued 634 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017/
for the 10/17/17 0000 UTC taf package.
winds continuing to subside heading toward sunset. Surface high
pressure centered north of the area will maintain a light north-northeast flow
on Tue, with a clear sky yielding VFR through the period.
Previous discussion... /issued 356 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017/
elongated area of high pressure extends from the New England
states south into Texas this afternoon. The pressure gradient
conts to relax and by this evening should lift off surface enough
to allow the Wind Advisory to expire. Temps acrs the area range in
the mid to upper 70s. Quite a difference from yesterday that saw
afternoon highs in the 90s.
The cold front has stalled over the central Gulf this aftn with
storms contg in this area. Dew points are in the 40s with
afternoon relative humidity values hanging around 30 percent. With clear skies
tonight looking for lows in the 40s acrs cntrl la and lakes region
in se TX. The gradient will cont to relax ovrnght and W/ the
winds dropping in the cstl wtrs.
A dry week is in store with temperatures recovering on Wednesday
with a gradual warming trend into the weekend. Look for showers
over the weekend as an upper lvl low drops down and becomes cutoff
from the main flow.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
aex 44 77 48 81 / 0 0 0 0
lch 51 78 53 83 / 0 0 0 0
lft 49 78 54 83 / 0 0 0 0
bpt 52 78 55 83 / 0 0 0 0
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 am CDT Tuesday for gmz430-432-435-
Small craft exercise caution from 7 am to 10 am CDT Tuesday for