Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 klch 191734
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles la
1134 am CST sun Nov 19 2017
for the 19/18z taf issuance.
surface ridge is centered over Texas and will move eastward across
the forecast area during the period. Meanwhile, dry subsident air
is noted on water vapor across the region. Therefore, not
expecting much in the way of cloud cover for today and tonight,
with just increasing high level cloudiness ahead of a short wave
on Monday. Thus, VFR conditions to persist. Main story in the
short term will be some gusty northerly winds with mixing from
daytime heating bringing some elevated winds down to the surface.
These winds will decrease by sunset, with light and variable winds
overnight as the surface ridge moves overhead. Light easterly
winds will start on Monday morning as surface ridge moves east of
Previous discussion... /issued 1018 am CST sun Nov 19 2017/
no changes to the forecast grids this morning as forecast appears
on track. Highs today and Monday will be significantly cooler
than we've seen these last few days. Temperatures across the
northern zones will dip into the mid/lower 30s tonight for the
first since late October. Temps along the I-10 corridor will
remain in the lower 40s with coastal areas in the lower 50s
tonight. Gusty Post- frontal winds continue to slowly dissipate
over the coastal waters this morning and afternoon.
Previous discussion... /issued 600 am CST sun Nov 19 2017/
19/12z taf issuance.
high pressure will continue to build into the region. VFR
expected at all taf sites today. Elevated northerly winds
and frequent wind gusts are still likely to occur this morning
across the lft/Ara/lch taf sites...to a lesser extent across
southeast Texas at kbpt. Winds should drop off all areas this
afternoon as high pressure continues to build in.
Previous discussion... /issued 355 am CST sun Nov 19 2017/
sfc observations currently show the cold front which passed the
forecast area last evening has now moved off the sern la coastline
and lies well beyond the marine zones this morning. However the
forecast area continues to feel its effects with temps in the
upper 40s/lower 50s over all but maybe the immediate coastline and
the extreme sern zones...while an elevated nrly sfc flow also
persists, albeit winds have died off from last night. Regional
88ds have gone ppi no echoes while satellite imagery depicts generally
clear skies with the exception of lower St Mary/Martin parishes.
First order of business this morning is the inherited Wind
Advisory for the coastal zones. Observations continue to show
gusts aoa 20 knots even though speeds have dropped off to 10-15
knots...given the current trends, feel safe in allowing the
advisory ride til its expiration time of 12z/06l, at which time
gusts should have subsided as well to just an occasional peak
around 20 knots.
Dry weather will persist through Monday as a trof over the ern
Continental U.S. Pushes ewd and gets replaced by a more zonal flow aloft,
while sfc high pressure currently centered over the srn plains
builds ewd and over the forecast area. Main story into tomorrow
will again be the much cooler temperatures as highs each day are
expected to top out in the lower/mid 60s (as opposed to our recent
maxes around 80). Lows tonight are forecast to drop to the mid 30s
nern zones/upper 30s to lower 40s elsewhere (except vicinity of
A decent shortwave is progged to develop over the desert SW and
push ewd tomorrow, passing over the cntl/nrn Gulf tomorrow night.
At this time, sufficient moisture for precip develop appears to
stay confined to the coastal waters. Next rain chance (albeit
small) for the forecast area comes late Tuesday as troffing moving
out of the plains helps push our next cold front toward the
region. Forecast soundings are beginning to indicate the potential
for enough moisture to pool in the lower levels to help produce a
little bit of shower activity at that time.
Our Thanksgiving weather is looking dry but chilly as nrly flow
again develops aloft and high pressure builds over the region at
the sfc. Morning wake up temps are expected to be around freezing
across the nern 1/4 of the area, with readings in the mid/upper
30s elsewhere. Highs are currently forecast to barely reach 60
across the ern 1/2. Similarly the remainder of the forecast period
looks dry but with moderating temps as heights begin building
no changes were made to the inherited Gale Warning/Small Craft
Advisory. Did issue a low water advisory for the wrn Inland Lakes
as observed tide levels were already beginning to exceed -1.0 foot
MLLW and projections indicated the potential to reach -1.5 feet
with this morning's low tide. Will allow the day shift to monitor
the need for Vermilion Bay. As winds relax later today with the
approach of high pressure, another round of elevated offshore flow
is anticipated with the next frontal passage mid-week.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
aex 63 34 62 40 / 0 0 0 0
lch 65 41 64 47 / 0 0 0 10
lft 63 40 63 47 / 0 0 0 10
bpt 65 43 64 50 / 0 0 0 10
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for gmz470-
Low water advisory until noon CST today for gmz430-432.
Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for gmz450-452-455.