Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 klch 240324
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles la
1024 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017
extensive outflow boundary and associated convection continues to
push south across north la, with additional isolated activity
occurring farther south over east/south central la. Hrrr runs have
continued to show the activity to the north progressing south into
the forecast area after midnight, though the intensity is shown
to wane over most of the area. The notable exception is where it
intercepts the presumably still active convection over S central
la. Have adjusted pop/wx grids based on latest radar trends and
the hrrr. No other changes to the forecast required this evening.
Previous discussion... /issued 700 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017/
Aviation...with the exception of a few showers over lower
Acadiana, convection has temporarily ended over the area. Did
introduce some activity returning after midnight. This associated
with a southward propagating mesoscale convective system now over central Arkansas, with
the latest hrrr suggesting could maintain itself into our area.
Otherwise, VFR is expected to prevail. Shower and thunderstorm
chances will be increasing during Max heating Saturday as
tropical moisture remains plentiful.
Previous discussion... /issued 344 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017/
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon have continued to
gradually shift to the east this afternoon with the low level
convergence axis shifting off to the east. Also water levels
continue to remain elevated along, especially in the coastal lakes
and bays this afternoon. The pets guidance continues to show
elevated water levels gradually subsiding. With a pretty large low
tide beginning shortly will allow the advisory to expire at 6 PM.
The guidance still indicates potential for 1-1.5 feet of
inundation tomorrow morning with high tide, but will let the
evening shift or the mid shift get another run of the guidance
before extending it. After tomorrow morning that should be the
last advisory potential coastal flooding for this event.
Front still forecast to sag into the region Saturday and gradually
wash out near the coast. This will cause the the chance for
showers and thunderstorms to increase for the weekend. Despite
rainfall forecasts being reduced slightly this forecast cycle. The
high precipitable water airmass in the wake of Cindy will aid in high rainfall
rates, so some locations could get some hefty amounts and thus a
small risk of exceeding flash flood thresholds.
Rain chances will remain elevated through Monday before getting
back to more climatological values.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
aex 75 86 71 85 / 50 60 30 50
lch 78 88 74 86 / 30 60 40 70
lft 76 86 74 85 / 50 70 40 70
bpt 77 88 74 85 / 20 50 30 60