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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Lake Charles la
404 PM CDT Friday Sep 30 2016

Discussion...
upper air analysis/water vapor satellite imagery continues to show
an upper low over the Ohio River valley with a trof axis extending
south into the east Gomex, with a ridge axis to the west stretching
from northern Mexico through the northern plains. Another upper
low noted spinning off the Pacific NW, while additional shortwave
energy continues to funnel through the desert SW. At the surface,
high pressure extends from the upper Midwest through central/eastern
Texas.

Forecast in the near term remains relatively unchanged, with a
cool and dry Continental airmass in place and going nowhere fast.
The upper low is progged to begin lifting toward the Great Lakes
tonight into Saturday while the ridge axis to the west flattens
out a bit as the shortwave energy over desert SW translates
eastward. This shortwave is expected to dig into/reinforce the
trof axis over the central/eastern Gomex late Sat into sun,
having the dual effect of helping lift Matthew northward and
maintaining the northwest flow aloft over our region. Winds at the
surface will continue from a NE and then east direction as the high
pressure system gradually moves east across the central conus,
with an onshore component developing by the early to middle part
of next week as the high shifts east of the area. Thus, in terms
of sensible weather, temperatures through the weekend and into
early next week are expected to only slowly moderate, with some
increase in cloud cover associated with the shortwave trof.

Global models generally agree on an upper trof translating
through the central Continental U.S. By the middle to latter part next week,
though differ on the timing/magnitude. Increasing moisture and
falling heights along with a SW jet aloft warrants at least the
low end rain chances in place Wednesday/Thu, so those were left as is.

13

&&

Marine...
a light to modest northeast to east flow will prevail through the
weekend as high pressure at the surface slides east across the
central United States. An onshore flow will return by the early to
middle part of next week as the high settles east of the region
and a cold front approaches from the west.

13

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
aex 55 84 58 86 / 0 0 10 10
lch 60 83 64 85 / 0 0 10 10
lft 60 85 64 86 / 0 0 10 10
bpt 60 84 64 86 / 0 0 10 10

&&

Lch watches/warnings/advisories...
la...none.
Texas...none.
GM...none.

&&

$$

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