Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 klch 260004
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles la
704 PM CDT sun Jun 25 2017
for 00z taf issuance.
maintaining vc mention at all srn terminals first hour or so given
activity currently associated with weak passing sfc boundary noted
on local 88ds...thereafter expecting a quiet night rain-wise with
loss of heating. Not expecting much in the way of low clouds
overnight given lack of sfc-h9 moisture in forecast time-height
sections. After sunrise, expecting VFR conditions to continue to
prevail although vcsh was re-introduced as the front meanders
around the region.
Previous discussion... /issued 315 PM CDT sun Jun 25 2017/
weather map show frontal boundary to the coast with northeasterly
winds behind it. Slightly drier air with dewpts in the upper 60s
across central Louisiana, but further south dewpts still in the
mid/upper 70s. Radar shows much less convection than expected
earlier. Left 50% for southeast Texas/S la into the coastal waters for the
next couple of hours of Max heating, as the hrrr still insists of
development. After sunset this evening, lingering convection if
any should be confined to the coast and coastal waters. Slightly
cooler and drier air will only be noted across central Louisiana,
where overnight lows will dip into the upper 60s. Elsewhere, lower
to mid 70s expected.
With the frontal boundary expected to remain nearly stationary
along the coast and coastal waters, at least a lower end chance of
showers and a few thunderstorms will remain across southeast Texas/S la
Monday and Tuesday. By Wednesday, the front is expected to
dissipate with a predominate southeast flow resuming across the
region, bringing with it increased Gulf moisture and higher
chances of showers and thunderstorms. This trend should continue
into Thursday, with precipitation chances gradually diminishing to
near climatological ~20-30% for the weekend as high pressure aloft
gradually builds westward over the region.
light northeast to easterly winds expected this evening and
overnight as a weak frontal boundary stalls near the coast, with a
chance for showers and thunderstorms. Winds and seas will be
higher near the storms. High pressure will ridge across the
northern Gulf by mid-week, providing a more predominate moderate
southeast flow and increased seas by Friday.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
aex 68 88 69 88 / 20 20 10 30
lch 73 87 73 87 / 30 30 20 40
lft 71 87 71 87 / 30 30 20 40
bpt 73 87 73 88 / 30 30 20 40