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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Lake Charles la
1249 PM CDT Thursday Jul 28 2016

Discussion...
for the 18z taf issuance.

&&

Aviation...
rather thick mid and upper level cloudiness will likely limit
insolation for significant thunderstorm activity. Since convection
is more focused along shear axis over northern Louisiana...will
carry tempo thunderstorms and rain for aex for this afternoon. Otherwise...will have
thunderstorms in the vicinity this afternoon for remainder of taf sites. VFR conditions and
near calm winds are forecasted for tonight through Friday morning.

Previous discussion... /issued 1106 am CDT Thursday Jul 28 2016/

Update...
regional radar mosaic shows a large complex of convection acrs nrn
la where shortwave energy FM nrn stream trough is merging with the
trough that has been over the region the past few days. Further
south, sctd showers and storms are seen SW of the Houston/Galveston
area, while just a few small isltd showers and tstms were developing
acrs the lch County Warning Area. Widespread low clouds blanket much of the area but
this has not stopped temperatures from warming into the middle 80s as
of 10 am. Expect this cloud cover to gradually scatter out through
early aftn.

Klch 12z shows precip water a little lower than the past few
mornings, at 1.9 inches, but still a bit abv normal. This is
sufficient to allow for sctd showers and tstms to develop by
midday/early aftn as temperatures climb to near 90 degrees beneath
weak low pres aloft. Best rain chcs are expected acrs the nrn
portions of the County Warning Area as outflow FM nrn la convection interacts with
northward moving seabreeze. Tweaked pops slightly to reflect
recent radar trends and hrrr guidance, otherwise fcst look to be
on track.

24

Previous discussion... /issued 700 am CDT Thursday Jul 28 2016/

Discussion...
for the 12z taf issuance.

Aviation...
mostly VFR conditions expected through the forecast taf package with
vicinity tstms beginning later this morning into the afternoon hours.

06

Discussion...
weather map shows weakening pressure gradient over the northwest Gulf as
high pressure builds eastward across the northern Gulf. Low
pressure trof axis aloft much less defined this morning, generally
over southeast TX/la. With this, much less showers on the radar this
morning.

The best chances for showers and thunderstorms will likely shift
further north today, mainly along and north of I-10 into inland southeast
Texas/c la. This cause the mid/upper trof weaker and less defined,
but displaced further north today, and a weak sfc trof over the
arklatex expected to generate convection later this morning.
This, and any outflow boundaries from the north combining with
sea-breeze activity from the south will likely enhance convection
further inland during maximum heating. Most guidance, including
nam12 and hrrr guidance, show this reasonably well.

For Friday, expecting less coverage overall, with the sea breeze
the primary focus for convection. For the remainder of the
forecast period, mainly sea-breeze late morning and afternoon
showers and thunderstorms, with possibly better chances for the
weekend into early next week over c and SC la. Temperatures near
normal.

Dml

Marine...
southeast to S winds 10-15 kts and seas 2-3 ft expected today and Friday,
diminishing a bit by the weekend as as high pressure becomes
established over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms will continue today as general low pressure
weakness aloft remains over the region. Shower and thunderstorm
chances expected to gradually diminish later this week into the
weekend.

Dml

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
aex 92 74 94 75 / 50 20 30 20
lch 91 77 92 78 / 30 20 30 20
lft 92 76 92 76 / 40 20 40 20
bpt 92 77 93 78 / 30 20 30 20

&&

Lch watches/warnings/advisories...
la...none.
Texas...none.
GM...none.
&&

$$



Aviation...04

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