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fxus64 klch 240216 
afdlch

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles la
816 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

Discussion...
wx map shows sfc high over southeast Texas/la with calm winds across all
areas along and north of I-10, north winds ~5 mph towards the coast.
Winds continue to subside offshore as well. Sat shows clear skies
areawide, with the calm winds, allow temps to fall in the 30s over
most of the area except 40s along the immediate coast and Inland
Lakes/bays. Current forecast on track, no updates needed at this
time.

Dml

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 357 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017/

Discussion...
chilly start this morning gave way to a pleasant afternoon with
mild temperatures in the lower 60s amid a light north wind and
clear sky. Surface high centered just to our northwest progged to sink
further to the southeast tonight, and amid an already cool and dry
airmass, is primed to set up an excellent radiational cooling
night that will help offset an otherwise slightly warmer thermal
profile. Given this setup and the good performance of cooler
guidance last night, leaned in that direction for low temperatures
tonight as well. This will bring another round of light freezing
temperatures to parts of central Louisiana, with the nearly calm
winds also allowing for greater frost potential generally
along/north of I-10.

Moderating trend expected to begin tomorrow as the surface high
is expected to shift off to the east, allowing at least a shallow
return flow to develop by afternoon amid a continued overall
warming thermal profile. Temperatures near seasonal normals are
expected tomorrow and tomorrow night, with above normal readings
on Saturday. Weak cold front progged to push through the area late
Saturday, driven by jet energy rounding an amplifying SW Continental U.S.
Ridge. No precipitation expected as atmosphere will remain quite dry, and
the effect on temperatures will be generally small as the brunt of
coldest air remains off to our N/NE. Still, it will reverse the
warming trend with near normal temperatures expected Sunday and
Monday.

Global models continue to diverge beyond Monday, with the depth
and timing of a shortwave trof progged to traverse the Continental U.S. The
primary culprit. There is general agreement that a more
aggressive warmup is in store for Tuesday with a greater
depth/magnitude of southerly flow forecast to develop. The
eventual evolution of the shortwave trof and its attendant
trailing cold front will play a large role in the eventual sensible
weather Tuesday night through Thursday. For now, a consensus approach was
utilized which depicts low end pops Tuesday night through Wednesday night
with temperatures near or not too far off from seasonal normals.

13

Marine...
winds will continue to subside as surface high pressure settles
south into the region. Clear skies and a generally light offshore
flow will prevail through Friday afternoon before winds turn
onshore in advance of another frontal system that will push
through the area late Saturday. North winds will prevail in the
wake of the front on Sunday, with an onshore flow developing on
Monday.

13

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
aex 33 67 41 74 / 0 0 0 0
lch 38 66 47 74 / 0 0 0 0
lft 37 65 45 73 / 0 0 0 0
bpt 39 67 49 77 / 0 0 0 0

&&

Lch watches/warnings/advisories...
la...none.
Texas...none.
GM...none.
&&

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