Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles la
353 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 26 2016
regional radar mosaic shows widespread convection acrs the nwrn
Gulf Coast, although most of the activity is occurring either side
of the lch County Warning Area. That said, some sctd small showers and isltd tstms
have been trying to develop along a seabreeze boundary near the
coast along with a few small showers and storms inland acrs the
lakes region of se Texas and cntl la. Some more potent convection is
poised to cross the Atchafalaya River into portions of Acadiana
over the next hour or so.
Precip water per the 12z klch sounding not quite as robust as the
last couple of days, coming in at 2.2 inches, but still well abv
normal. However, water vapor imagery indicates some slightly drier
air aloft over the area, and this, combined with abundant cloud
cover and a prevailing NE to east wind, has kept convection
generally in check this aftn.
few changes to the fcst the next few days as the broad trough aloft
remains over the nwrn Gulf. The sfc/low lvl trough will slide slowly
north through Wed, with ridging building west behind it allowing
low lvl S/SW flow to resume. By Thursday, the upr trough will
stall, become elongated and merge with a shortwave digging se over
the MS valley. This will leave a weakness aloft between the
subtropical ridge off the southeast Continental U.S. And a ridge over the desert SW.
The combination of the weakness aloft and ample tropical moisture
over the area will result in abv normal chcs for showers and
storms each day through the weekend. Precip water values are fcst
to remain abv 2 inches and storms will be capable of very heavy
rainfall and high rain rates. Daily convective coverage will
gradually trend down by late in the weekend into early next week
as the weak trough meanders over the lower MS valley.
With an unsettled weather pattern in place, temperatures should
stay mostly near or below normal for aftn highs through the week.
However, a few locations could reach the middle 90s where
showers/clouds fail to materialize. By the weekend and into early
next week, aftn highs are expected to trend back toward normal/abv
normal temps with heat index values likewise climbing into the
a lt to modt onshore flow will continue through the period as high
pres becomes re-established acrs Florida into the nrn Gulf.
Sctd to nmrs showers and tstms are expected mainly FM overnight into
late morning as a disturbance aloft moves slowly west the next few
Preliminary point temps/pops...
aex 74 89 74 90 / 40 70 30 50
lch 77 89 77 91 / 40 50 30 40
lft 76 90 76 92 / 40 50 30 40
bpt 76 92 77 93 / 40 60 20 40