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fxus64 klch 201442 
afdlch

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles la
942 am CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

Update...
showers and thunderstorms continue to wrap around the periphery of
a surface high centered over the Appalachians and upper level
ridging centered over the northeastern Gulf Coast. The majority of
this activity has been focused across southeast Texas with the
heaviest rainfall occurring just outside of the lch County Warning Area boundaries
in Chambers and Liberty counties. Hrrr and other high res
guidance indicating that this activity should continue through the
afternoon with storms remaining primarily over southeast Texas
and the adjacent coastal waters. Thus, I raised pop's for both the
remainder of the morning and this afternoon across these areas.
Only other changes were minor tweaks to other parameters based on
latest observations. Expect convection to decrease over land
areas by late this evening.

Jones

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 709 am CDT Fri Oct 20 2017/

Discussion...
20/12z taf issuance.

Aviation...
a weak sfc trough over the Texas coast combined with a shortwave
aloft is producing a band of rain showers/thunderstorms and rain over southeast Texas. Although
most of the activity is west of the area, some of this convection
will affect the bpt terminal today. Conditions have been VFR
overnight under broken/overcast mid and high cloud decks, and these
conditions will continue today although cigs will lower to
3500-5000 feet at bpt/lch with sctd low decks further east. East to
southeast winds are also expected to strengthen to 10-15 knots at
bpt/lch, with speeds around 10 knots at aex/Ara/lft. Showers and
storms acrs southeast Texas should diminish this evening, with cigs
lowering to MVFR at bpt after 06z.

24

Previous discussion... /issued 405 am CDT Fri Oct 20 2017/

Discussion...
high pressure at the surface and aloft will continue to dominate
the area into the early portion of the weekend. A few showers and
earlier some thunderstorms currently moving across East Texas with a
weakening short wave. This will provide for considerable cloud
cover across the area today. Showers and thunderstorms will
continue to weaken as they try to move across the western portions
of the area today. Still cant rule out measurable rainfall over
southeast Texas.

Low pressure still forecast to develop in the Lee of The Rockies
Saturday as a potent trough moves across the western US. This will
induce increasing moisture levels throughout the column. As the
features continue to move east, a cold front will move into the
region Saturday night and through the area Sunday. Instability and
shear parameters still indicate a potential for a few strong
storms Sunday.

Cooler airmass will follow in the wake of the front, however even
cooler airmass will come in the wake of a secondary dry front on
Tuesday with dry weather forecast for the remainder of next work
week.

27

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
aex 84 65 86 67 / 10 10 50 60
lch 84 70 86 72 / 30 20 40 50
lft 86 69 86 71 / 10 10 60 50
bpt 82 71 84 72 / 60 20 20 50

&&

Lch watches/warnings/advisories...
la...none.
Texas...none.
GM...small craft exercise caution until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for
gmz450-452-455-470-472-475.

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