Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 klch 271538
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles la
1038 am CDT Sat may 27 2017
have made some minor changes by adding a bit of showers for tdy.
Otherwise... current zones are fine. Summertime pattern is here
to stay for a while.
Previous discussion... /issued 621 am CDT Sat may 27 2017/
overcast MVFR ceilings between 1-2 kft will gradually improve
throughout the morning and give way to broken ceilings of 3-5 kft by
mid to late afternoon. Southerly winds will increase through mid
morning and could see gusts to 20 knots through the afternoon.
Winds are expected to decrease with ceilings lowering back to MVFR
by late this evening.
Previous discussion... /issued 532 am CDT Sat may 27 2017/
warm and moist low level moisture continued to invade our region
as low pressure deepened in the Southern Plains. Low clouds were
widespread this morning and temperatures were much warmer than
last night. In fact...temperatures along the coast were 6 to 8
degrees warmer than last night along the inner coastal areas
along I-10 corridor while an even larger range of 9 to 13 degrees
warmer could be found in our northern areas.
Our area was rain free which could not be said for the Central
Plains where ongoing clusters of thunderstorms continued across
the mid section of the country.
Short term...a story of two tales begins with the Central Plains
dealing with an upper level trough and developing cold front which
is expected to ignite widespread damage this afternoon through
Sunday morning across the bread basket of the country from Kansas
and Oklahoma east to Kentucky and Tennessee. Around that is a
slight risk cover North Texas and northern Louisiana.
In the meantime...our area of southeast Texas and southern
Louisiana is expected to remain capped as weak high pressure
continues to hold over the area. Clouds and warmer conditions
will prevail under the warm cap with rich dewpoint air continuing
to spread northward.
Moving into Sunday...the cold front will reach forth Worth/Dallas
metroplex in the morning with moisture pooling close to the
frontal boundary. A slight risk of severe storm will generally
remain north of the area Sunday afternoon except for a tiny sliver
across interior southeast Texas. However...the northern half of
our County Warning Area will still have marginal thunderstorms
which could product gusty winds and small hail. Sunday night as
the frontal boundary approaches our northern areas...rain chances
increase significantly Sunday night into Monday as the slow
moving front moves into our area. There could be some a few storms
that reach severe limits along the frontal boundary.
However...most of the upper level support does move north of the
area...therefore...not expecting widespread severe weather at
Longterm...Monday through Friday...the frontal boundary will
continue to meander down to the coast by Tuesday morning and stall
out there. The front should wash out by late Wednesday.
However...Monday through Wednesday we are expecting increased rain
chances to continue as weak disturbances ride across the area and
the weak frontal boundary remains potent enough for which storms
will focus on. Rain chances will slacken off Thursday and Friday
but still remain elevated due to increasing moisture and possible
daytime sea breezes as well as afternoon heating of the unstable
In summary....it is looking warm and humid today and tonight
followed by increasing rain chances Sunday through the middle of
next week as a cold front slowly approaches then stalls near the
coastal areas by Tuesday morning. Localized flooding is always
possible with slow moving boundaries and a moist environment.
However...widespread flooding is not expected at this time as
upper level support is expected to weaken during the first part
of next week.
light to moderate southerly flow will continue through the weekend
as low pressure continues to develop over the Southern Plains. A
cold front will stall along the coastal areas bringing increased
rain chances Sunday night into mid week as the front slowly washes
Preliminary point temps/pops...
aex 91 74 90 70 / 20 10 30 60
lch 88 76 88 73 / 10 10 20 60
lft 89 75 88 73 / 10 10 20 50
bpt 88 76 87 73 / 10 10 20 60
GM...small craft exercise caution until 11 am CDT this morning for