Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles la
1130 PM CDT sun Oct 23 2016
for the 24/06z taf issuance.
no changes to the previous thinking as far as the reasoning behind
the latest taf package. Upper level disturbance moving out of
southern Texas will continue to bring upper level clouds across
the region through the taf period. Meanwhile...surface high
pressure will ridge over the region from the southeast US, that
will keep a light east to southeast flow with meager low level
moisture return. Therefore, conditions are expected to remain at
VFR levels through the period, with the only exception some patchy
fog with MVFR visibilities at kaex around sunrise.
Previous discussion... /issued 933 PM CDT sun Oct 23 2016/
wx map shows sfc high pressure ridge extending from la to GA, with
calm winds areawide, except for light southeast winds over southeast Texas. Satellite
shows sct/bkn high cirrus over most of the region. Temps across
the region range from the mid 50s over c la to mid 60s over southeast Texas.
This and moderating sfc high has led to temps not as cool as last
night at this time, which was expected. Expect temps to fall
another 5 degrees or so, which is shown in forecast. No updates
needed at this time.
Previous discussion... /issued 253 PM CDT sun Oct 23 2016/
Short term...tonight through Monday night...
main forecast issue will be fog potential especially on Monday
night. Although there were considerable high clouds today...plenty
of sunshine helped raised temperatures into the upper 70s to lower
80s. Minimum temperatures should be a few degrees higher tonight as
low level easterly flow continues to modify the air mass. Some
patchy fog may occur tonight...but likely not enough to
significantly reduce visibilities. Warmer and slightly more humid
conditions are expected for Monday with temperatures reaching
well into the 80s. Conditions should be favorable for more
widespread fog Monday night.
Long term...Tuesday through Sunday
upper pattern is forecasted to amplify with ridge building over
the south central U.S. And a trough digging over the eastern U.S.
Models hint at pwats increasing to near 1.5 inches approaching the
coast on Wednesday. Deep easterly flow is still progged over the
Gulf. While some precipitation could move over coastal
areas...believe best chance for rain will be offshore. For
now...will have low rain chances over lower Acadiana on Wednesday.
Models continue the trend of developing a low near the Yucatan
late in the week. For now...believe this system will aid in
further suppressing moisture to the south. Temperatures will
continue to stay above normal.
broad high pressure will continue across the southeast U.S. Through this
week. Gradient is expected to tighten as low develops over the
Yucatan. Easterly flow will be maintained and may be strong enough
for scec/Small Craft Advisory conditions late in the week. Higher than normal
tides are expected especially over southeast Texas.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
aex 51 80 51 83 / 0 0 0 0
lch 57 82 57 82 / 0 0 0 0
lft 55 82 56 83 / 0 0 0 0
bpt 60 82 60 82 / 10 0 0 0