Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 klch 161132
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles la
532 am CST Mon Jan 16 2017
Aviation...scattered showers are ongoing across western la and southeast
Texas this morning. Isolated to scattered showers are expected to
persist in this area through the day. Lower ceilings and vis will
be possible through much of the period. Winds will south to
southeast through the period.
Previous discussion... /issued 457 am CST Mon Jan 16 2017/
lead upper low is currently lifting north through OK and is progged
to continue quickly toward the NE and be nearing the Great Lakes
in about 24 hrs. An associated cold front is expected to ease into the
area tonight, and subsequently only crawl eastward to near a kaex
to kbpt line by tomorrow night. Isolated to scattered
showers/thunderstorms are expected today into this evening, with
the bulk of the rain remaining west/northwest of the forecast area closer to
the front. Active/noisy SW upper jet in concert with ample
moisture and the surface front will yield more numerous activity after
midnight and into Tue, with a bit of a lull expected Tuesday
afternoon and evening as the front begins to weaken and waffle
Models forecast the boundary to sharpen a bit over East Texas on late
Tuesday night into Wed, with a weak frontal wave lifting north along
it as an upstream upper low currently over the baja moves slowly
east thru the plains. The upper low is progged to continue
eastward, taking on a more neutral to negative tilt as it
approaches the area on Thursday. Yet another wave is forecast to
develop along the now eastward moving front, with the boundary
finally kicking east of the area by Thursday night. Each of these waves
will bring with it an enhanced round of showers and thunderstorms,
with the second having greater upper level support.
A break in convective activity is expected Friday as drier air
briefly filters in from the west in the wake of the upper low, but
this will be short lived as the active jet aloft sends another
upper level impulse through the area Friday night into Sat, with a
more robust upper low moving through Sat night into sun.
Temperatures will continue to run above seasonal normals through
the upcoming week and into the weekend, with cooler air slated to
arrive by the latter half of the weekend.
a moderate southeast wind will continue through the period with
increased shower and thunderstorm chances for much of the week.
With a warm moist air mass over the top of cooler near shore
shelf waters, patchy sea fog expected the next couple of days.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
aex 74 63 69 59 / 30 40 70 40
lch 76 65 74 63 / 30 30 40 40
lft 78 67 78 65 / 20 10 30 20
bpt 78 65 75 63 / 30 50 50 50
GM...small craft exercise caution until 9 am CST this morning for