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FXUS64 KLCH 202344

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
644 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

21/00Z TAF Issuance.


Aftn convection will continue to diminish through 02Z with VFR
conditions expected to prevail through midnight. Winds are
expected to become light/vrbl or nearly calm, leading to the
potential for patchy fog late tonight. Fcst confidence is again 
somewhat low in how widespread/dense fog will be but think at
least prevailing MVFR vsbys will be likely after 08Z with ocnl IFR
around daybreak, especially near KAEX. Conditions will improve by
14-15Z with widely sctd -SHRA developing near the southern
terminals by midday.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 350 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017/ 

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this afternoon as
expected in response to diurnal heating aided by a weak trough
moving through the area. Expect the activity to wane through the
evening hours before coming to an end around or shortly after
sunset this evening. 

Synoptically, the US will be divided in half over the next several
days with a large upper trough across the western US bringing more
autumn like conditions while the eastern US will find itself
beneath upper ridging which will keep Tropical Storm Jose and 
eventually Hurricane Maria off the eastern seaboard.

Our area will be caught somewhere in between with the greater
influence coming from the ridging thorough early next week.
Still, with plenty of atmospheric moisture available, diurnal 
heating will be enough to spawn isolated to scattered showers and 
thunderstorms each afternoon. Overall coverage will likely be 
lower tomorrow and Friday as there will be less upper level 
support over the region. This pattern will persist through the 
middle of next week before the aforementioned upper trough begins 
to dig further south and east potentially swinging a cold front 
through the area sometime late next week or next weekend.

Abundant atmospheric moisture and daytime heating will result in
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. 
Weak high pressure will persist over the northeast Gulf, yielding
generally light southerly winds and low seas. 



AEX  71  91  71  92 /  20  30  10  20 
LCH  76  89  73  90 /  20  30  10  20 
LFT  74  91  74  92 /  20  30  10  20 
BPT  73  88  72  90 /  20  40  10  20 



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