Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus63 klbf 271128 aaa 

Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service North Platte NE
628 am CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 354 am CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Models in fair agreement in the near term this morning. Cool front
to the south over Kansas this morning with surface high pressure in
place over western Nebraska. Some MVFR cigs over southwest Nebraska
and couple of degree dew point spreads have added some patchy fog
this morning. Further to the southwest the ring of fire continues
anchored over New Mexico Texas Panhandle vicinity. Ridge of high
pressure at 500mb entrenched over the western Continental U.S.. very juicy air
trapped over western Nebraska with pw's at klbf last evening's
flight at 1.56 or 162% of normal. Stationary boundary turns north
along the Front Range in co and WY. This will be the focus for
thunderstorms this afternoon as a stronger wave moves around the
ridge. Full sun over most of western Nebraska and a return flow on
the back side of the surface high will see temperatures about a
category over yesterdays highs. Have left precipitation out of the
forecast today and only included it after 6z tonight over the
northwest. Southerly flow tonight over western Nebraska will hold
temperatures up in the low 60s.

Long term...(friday through wednesday)
issued at 354 am CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Upper level ridge axis will remain over High Plains Friday into
Saturday but then is shown to build westward for the latter half of
the weekend and early next week. At the surface high pressure near
the Great Lakes will allow for southeasterly low level flow and the
subsequent influx of decent moisture Friday evening through
Saturday. Precipitable waters during this time period are shown to eclipse an 1.5
inches as far west as the eastern Panhandle. There is some
agreement in the medium range models of weak shortwave energy to
initiate convection off the Front Range and/or High Plains. Friday
afternoon, stability profiles show decent cape across our far
western zones, but as one would expect, much less the further east.
Storms would be expected to be strong or severe out west. Quantitative precipitation forecast
fields show decent rainfall potential in the storms, with the
possibility of locally heavy rainfall. The shortwave energy remains
into Saturday with the models indicating spotty bullseye of qpf
across the County Warning Area through the day. A somewhat "stronger" wave is shown
to pass through the weak northwest flow Saturday evening, providing
for additional storm chances. The better instability is progged to
be across our west, strong storms would be possible with localized
heavy rainfall lasting into Sunday. Temperatures through the
weekend will be moderated by the clouds and easterly low level flow.
Highs will be near or slightly below average.

Next week the ridge remains centered near the Great Basin, leaving
northwest flow for the Central Plains. Shortwave energy is seen
with the potential for periodic disturbances passing through the
mean flow. The models respond by placing periodic pop chances, but
those chances are lower confidence. Highs next week are progged to
be seasonal or slightly below average owing to the potential
unsettled conditions and the fact that the cwa will be east of the


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Friday morning)
issued at 623 am CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Isolated rain showers will continue to move to the northeast over
the western Nebraska sandhills between kmhn and kgrn. Some IFR
and MVFR cigs can be encountered south of a line from kaia to
klbf. Ceilings will gradually lift into VFR categories through
15z. Light and variable winds will become east under 10kts today.
Thunderstorms expected in the Panhandle late this afternoon into
this evening.


Lbf watches/warnings/advisories...


National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations