Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus63 klbf 160847 
afdlbf

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
247 am CST Sat Dec 16 2017

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 247 am CST Sat Dec 16 2017

Cold front over southwest South Dakota will drop south into northern
Nebraska this morning and spread south through the day. Some light
snow mainly over higher elevations of the Pine Ridge with the front.
Front moving south and upper system shearing across the Southern
Plains into the Central Plains upglide with weak orographic lift
over the southeast Nebraska Panhandle into southwest Nebraska will
see some patchy freezing drizzle developing late tonight. Freezing
drizzle sounding with saturated lower layers...weak lift and dry at
mid levels. Highs in the upper 30s northwest to around 50 southwest.
Pressure gradient not that strong with the frontal passage. Winds out of the
north and shifting to the northeast at 10 to 20 mph this afternoon.
Lows tonight will be relatively warm with cloud cover continuing
over western Nebraska. Most temperatures will remain in the 20s.
Less than an inch of snow expected in the northwest and best chances
for freezing type precipitation through the early morning hours
Sunday but confidence is not real high.

Long term...(sunday through friday)
issued at 247 am CST Sat Dec 16 2017

The extended period will start off quiet as high pressure remains
over the region. Dry weather will persist from Sunday through
Wednesday. Temperatures will remain cool on Sunday with most
locations only seeing highs in the upper 30s. Temperatures return
into the low to mid 50s for Monday and Wednesday with Tuesday being
slightly cooler in the upper 40s to low 50s.

The main weather concern for the next week arrives on Wednesday
night and Thursday. A low pressure system will drop southeast across
the northern and Central Plains. With this system, cooler
temperatures return as well as a chance for some snow for the entire
forecast area. Timing and intensity is still a little uncertain as
the system is still nearly a week out. But current models are
showing the best chance for the heaviest precipitation to occur
between 8am and 4pm Thursday. During this time up to 2 inches of
snow is possible with locally higher amounts near 3 inches possible.

For the most part, precipitation type will be all snow. There is a
small chance that some rain or rain/snow mix could start off the
event as temperatures begin above freezing Wednesday night.
Temperatures are expected to drop quickly and be below freezing by
2am Thursday at which time precipitation will change over all snow
for the remainder of the event as high temperatures Thursday only
rise into the upper teens (across the north) to the upper 20s (south
of I-80). Will continue to keep an eye on this system in the coming
days to get a better handle on the timing and snowfall accumulation
amounts.

Surface high pressure builds back into the region on Thursday night
and Friday resulting in a return to dry and cool conditions for the
end of the week. Temperatures only rise into the upper 20s with a
few locations (mainly those along and south of the I-80 corridor)
rising into the low 30s.

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Saturday night)
issued at 1113 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

A cold front will move through most of western Nebraska overnight.
This will bring surface winds to the north and northeast for
Saturday as wind speeds remain below 12 kts. A broken deck of high
cloudiness Saturday, with a lowering of ceilings to MVFR at kvtn
after 04z.

&&

Lbf watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations