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Area forecast discussion...corrected 
National Weather Service Key West Florida
938 am EST sun Dec 4 2016

Discussion...
currently...
from the above Earth reference frame we see a complex pattern across
North America. From east to west we have an upper low spinning just
east of the Canadian Maritimes, an area of high pressure resides
over the southeastern United States, and a large trough is moving
over western half of North America. The trough over the western
portions of the continent is a conglomerate of several areas f low
pressure extending from the southern tip of baja Mexico to the Yukon
territories.

Forecast...
the ridge over the southeastern United States will slowly move to the
east ahead of the advancing trough diving out of the Pacific
northwest through late Tuesday. Winds will decrease late Tuesday
through midday Thursday as a cold front stalls over the northern
Florida Peninsula, resulting in a weakening pressure gradient
over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Rain chances remain low due to
ridging aloft which will remain in place over South Florida and the
Keys through Thursday. A reinforcing short wave will drive southward
through the Central Plains with a cold Artic airmass forcing its way
south from Saskatchewan and Manitoba on Thursday.

Forecast confidence beyond Thursday evening is low due to the
dichotomy in the past few model runs. With this in mind will keep the
status quo going from the previous cycle and watch the evolution in
the guidance for the afternoon forecast.

&&

Marine...
a Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the Florida Straits south
Hawk Channel this morning. High pressure over the southeast United
States. Small craft should exercise caution on the southeastern Gulf
of Mexico beyond 20 west of Mainland Monroe County and surrounding
the Dry Tortugas. A cold front will approach the southeastern Gulf
of Mexico on Tuesday then stall over northern central Florida
Tuesday evening. Breezes will be moderate to fresh with the advisory
for the Florida Straits and Hawk Channel continuing possibly through
Monday night. The pressure gradient weakens due to the stalled front
on Tuesday through Thursday. Another cold front is forecast to move
into the northern Gulf of Mexico Thursday night with an area of high
pressure building in on Friday.

&&

Aviation...
scattered shallow stratocu based around fl030 are expected through
the day and into tonight at both the keyw and kmth terminals. Should
there be any ceilings, they are expected to be very brief, so that
has not been included in the latest tafs at either location. Expect
VFR conditions at both locations with surface winds sustained
between 10 and 15 knots with frequent gusts near 20 knots.

&&

Climate...
in 1997, 2.99 inches of rain was measured in Key West. This set the
daily rainfall record for December fourth in the city. Rainfall
records for Key West date back to 1871.

&&

Key watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...none.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for gmz033-
034-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

Public/marine/fire...bwc
aviation/nowcasts....04
data collection......fling

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