Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus62 kkey 280808 
afdkey

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Key West Florida
408 am EDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Discussion...
there is a small cluster of showers just south of the Dry Tortugas
early this morning. Much weaker and very widely separated echoes
on kbyx radar are moving westward through The Straits of Florida.
Elsewhere, under mostly clear skies, temperatures are in the
lower 70s with winds gentle to moderate from northeast to
southeast.

Mid to upper level ridging will slide eastward through the eastern
Gulf of Mexico today and Wednesday. The center of high surface
pressure will settle east of the Florida Peninsula during that
time, maintaining gentle to moderate mainly easterly breezes
across the Keys and surrounding waters. Very little in the way of
changes were made to the gridded weather elements through the
middle of the week. By late in the week, a weakening trough
swings through the central Gulf of Mexico. The latest GFS MOS
guidance suggests a brief elevated probability of precipitation..late
Friday into Saturday...as it portrays more robust southerly flow
locally. Inserted a slight chance of showers for Friday night and
early Saturday on that account.

High pressure reasserts itself late this weekend and early next
week beneath another low amplitude ridge. Kept the late periods of
the forecast without a pop for this forecast cycle. Temperatures
will be several degrees above the seasonal average.

&&

Marine...
winds will be gentle to moderate, favoring the easterly direction
through the next several days. No advisories or cautionary
headlines for small craft are expected.

&&

Aviation...
VFR conditions will prevail at both the Key West and Marathon
international terminals through 29/06z, under northeast to east
winds 5 to 10 knots.

&&

Climate...
on 28 March 2013, the temperature fell to 58 degrees in Key West
setting the daily record minimum temperature in Key West.
Temperature records for Key West date back to 1872.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Key West 83 72 83 73 / - - - -
Marathon 84 71 84 73 / - - - -

&&

Key watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...none.
GM...none.

&&

$$

Public/marine/fire...04
aviation/nowcasts....bwc
data collection......Vickery

Visit US on the web at weather.Gov/key

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations