Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus63 kjkl 262333 aaa 

Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Jackson Kentucky
733 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017

issued at 733 PM EDT Monday Jun 26 2017

Freshened up the hourly temperatures and dew points through this
evening. Thicker cloud cover moving in from the northwest should
hold off long enough for a quick drop in the valleys through 06z,
otherwise the forecast remains on track.


Short term...(this evening through Tuesday night)
issued at 328 PM EDT Monday Jun 26 2017

Another cool and dry Summer afternoon remains in place across
eastern Kentucky, with temperatures in the low-mid 70s and dewpoints
comfortably sitting in the mid 40s-mid 50s. One band of mid-high
clouds continues to move across southern to central Kentucky,
while another subtle shortwave impulse is producing a second
batch of these from the Midwest through the Ohio Valley. This
latter wave, stretching from the Great Lakes to near St. Louis,
will bring isolated to scattered showers through the Ohio Valley
and into eastern Kentucky later this evening through tonight.
Moisture will be very limited and confined to top-down moistening,
as surface ridging moves south into the Tennessee Valley.
Therefore, expecting rainfall amounts to remain below one tenth of
an inch.

Rain chances will continue into Tuesday afternoon as the axis of the
mid level trough swings through eastern Kentucky. Given steepening
lapse rates owing to lower heights with the base of the trough
overhead, isolated thunder chances will be in the offing until a
weak cool front pushes through by mid-late afternoon and shuts off
any additional chances for precipitation. This potential for thunder
will be rather limited as temperatures only warm into the mid 70s
with dewpoints in the mid 50s.

One more cool Summer night will be in store Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning as a ~1020 mb surface ridge slides across the
Bluegrass. Temperatures will drop into the mid 50s on ridges and
upper 40s to lower 50s in valleys, allowing for some areas of valley

Long term...(wednesday through monday)
issued at 3 PM EDT Monday Jun 26 2017

There is good model agreement with the overall upper air pattern
through the forecast period. The long wave trough over the eastern
U.S. At the beginning of the period will be lifting out with more
zonal flow becoming established across our area. A couple of short
wave troughs will move through the mean flow during latter part of
the week, with the most significant short wave moving across the
Great Lakes this weekend.

At the surface, high pressure will be moving off to our east on
Wednesday. As a result temperatures will begin to warm and with
return flow developing moisture will also be on the increase across
the area through the latter part of the week. Wednesday will still
have dewpoints in the 50s, but after that dewpoints will go back
into the 60s, with mid and upper 60 dewpoints expected for the
remainder of the forecast period. By Thursday afternoon a short wave
passing by to our north may result in a few storms in the northern
part of the area while moisture returning from the south will bring
a slight chance of storms to the south. With a slow moving front to
our north at the end of the week, and moisture continuing to
increase, the storm threat will expand on Friday. However storm
chances on Friday will remain relatively low. The best chance for
showers and storms will occur on Saturday into Saturday night as a
more significant short wave and associated surface low moving across
the Great Lakes results in a southward push of the cold front. The
front will stall in the Ohio Valley and this will keep a chance of
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast into next week.
Temperatures will warm back into the mid 80s on Thursday, but the
daily threat of showers and storms will keep maximums in the lower
80s for most days from the weekend into early next week. With the
increase in dewpoints after Wednesday we'll see our typical Summer
lows of muggy 60s from the end of the week into next week.


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Tuesday evening)
issued at 733 PM EDT Monday Jun 26 2017

VFR conditions look to hold on through the period. Clouds will
thicken and lower to around 6k feet agl from northwest to
southeast tonight, as a weak cold front approaches. A few showers
will threaten from late tonight into Tuesday morning, before
chances diminish into the afternoon as the cold front exits. Light
and variable winds will turn more out of the northwest at around
5 kts once again into Tuesday.


Jkl watches/warnings/advisories...


National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations