Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus63 kjkl 262045 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Jackson Kentucky
445 PM EDT sun Mar 26 2017

Short term...(this evening through Monday night)
issued at 300 PM EDT sun Mar 26 2017

The short term period will be active, with numerous showers and
isolated thunderstorms moving across the area through around 2z
this evening. A few of the storms this afternoon could produce
hail and strong wind gusts. The thunder chances should only last
through 23 or 0z, as any remaining instability and best forcing
should be gone after that. General rain showers are expected
overnight, and these will taper off steadily through 6z, and
should be gone by around 9z. After a very brief reprieve, we
should see more showers moving into the area from the south and
southwest between 12 and 13z on Monday. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will be possible again after 17z on Monday. There
will be a good chance of thunder Monday night as well, as a strong
area of low pressure aloft and a fast moving but weak cold front
both move across the region. Mostly cloudy to cloudy skies will
also be on tap, as ample moisture will continue streaming into the
area from the south. Temperatures through out the period will
continue to run well above normal, with nightly lows in the 50s,
and highs on Monday in the low to mid 70s expected.

Long term...(tuesday through sunday)
issued at 440 PM EDT sun Mar 26 2017

The period is expected to begin with a mid and upper level trough
moving through the Ohio Valley region and into the Appalachians that
shifts east during the day on Tuesday and takes deeper moisture
with it. The associated surface low is expected to move into the
mid Atlantic states by Tuesday evening and take the cold front
across the area on Tuesday morning. Mid and upper level ridging
should build in behind it, with surface high pressure nosing into
the Ohio Valley at midweek. This should bring a break in the
unsettled weather with mild and drier weather from late Tuesday
evening through Wednesday night.

The pattern will remain rather active with the next in a series
of upper lows or shortwaves moving from the southern rockies
across the plains and into the mid MS and Ohio valleys from Wed
through Thursday evening. There is also some timing and strength
differences with the upper and surface low beyond Thursday. The
general consensus however, is for the upper and surface system to
track to the west and north of the area from Thursday through
Friday night and bring additional rounds of showers and a few
thunderstorms to the area. This system should continue to depart
on Saturday with surface and upper level ridging building in for a
dry end to the weekend.

Chances for showers will be highest to start the period, followed
by a lull at midweek. The next system will bring another period of
unsettled weather with pops in the good chance to likely range
form Thursday into Friday evening. At this point, next weekend is
expected to end on a dry note.

High temperatures should average above normal for most of the
period, although highs on Wednesday and Saturday should be near
normal for late March/early April. Lows will also be mild and at
this point are not expected to fall below 40 at any point, even in
the normally colder valley locations.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Monday afternoon)
issued at 131 PM EDT sun Mar 26 2017

Scattered to numerous rain showers will spread across eastern
Kentucky through around 2z tonight. A few thunderstorms may also
occur north of the hal Rogers parkway, possibly affecting jkl,
sym, and sjs. VFR cigs in general are expected, although MVFR
conditions may occur where an intense rain shower or any
thunderstorms directly impact one of the airports mentioned above.
Broken to overcast low and middle level cloud cover will plague the area
through the end of the taf period, with VFR conditions expected
from 23z through the end of the taf period. Any chance for
thunder should be gone by 0z. After that, numerous rain showers
should steadily taper off through around 6z, with no rain expected
anywhere between roughly 7 and 13z Monday. Winds will be
generally out of the south at around 10 mph today, with gusts of
up to 20 mph possible at times.


Jkl watches/warnings/advisories...


National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations