Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus62 kjax 231403 
afdjax

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville Florida
903 am EST Thu Nov 23 2017

Update...
looking at visible satellite imagery a well formed baroclinic
Leaf signature is moving across Florida and the southeast which is
usually a sign of heavy rainfall. Indeed along the surface warm
front over Marion County we have seen about 4 to 6 inches of
rainfall with an areal Flood Warning issued for that area. Expect
a rainy Thanksgiving across the entire forecast area with the
heaviest rainfall from I-10 southward. A few embedded strong to
severe storms are possible especially along and near the warm
front as it moves northward. Eventually the surface low will move
east into the Atlantic with rainfall sharply clearing from west to
east later this afternoon and this evening as the baroclinic Leaf
feature moves into the Atlantic.

&&

Aviation...
ceilings and visibilities at all fields are in the MVFR to IFR
range and will remain down all day until the surface
low/baroclinic Leaf moves east into the Atlantic this evening.

&&

Marine...
low pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico early this morning will
move east-northeastward across north central Florida this afternoon,
emerging into the Atlantic waters early this evening.
This low pressure will then gradually strengthen as it accelerates
northeastward off the southeastern Seaboard. Our local pressure
gradient will tighten quickly this morning as the low pressure
center approaches the Florida Nature Coast, with northeasterly winds
strengthening to Small Craft Advisory (sca) levels of 20-25 knots by
the late morning hours. Occasional gusts to gale force will be
possible late this afternoon and evening, mainly over the offshore
waters. Seas in the offshore waters will build to 6-8 feet later
this afternoon, with near shore seas peaking in the 5-7 foot range
from late this afternoon through early Friday morning. Winds will
shift to a northerly direction by late this evening, and offshore
seas will peak tonight in the 6-9 foot range. Winds and seas will
fall back to caution levels in the near shore waters during the late
morning hours on Friday, with seas remaining at Small Craft Advisory levels through
early Friday evening. Weak high pressure will then build into our
area Friday night and Saturday. Seas will remain at caution levels
of 4-6 feet on Friday night, with headlines not expected this
weekend as a stronger high pressure center builds to the north of
our region, resulting in some enhancement to northeasterly winds by
Sunday.

Rip currents: moderate risk expected through the weekend.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
amg 59 47 64 43 / 60 40 20 10
ssi 63 51 63 49 / 80 70 30 10
jax 64 55 65 47 / 90 80 30 10
sgj 70 58 67 52 / 100 80 40 10
gnv 70 56 67 47 / 90 70 30 10
ocf 73 58 70 49 / 90 70 40 10

&&

Jax watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...none.
Georgia...none.
Am...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Friday for waters from
Altamaha Sound Georgia to Fernandina Beach Florida from 20 to 60 nm-
waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine Florida from 20 to
60 nm-waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach Florida from 20
to 60 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 am EST Friday for coastal waters
from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach Florida out 20 nm-
coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine Florida
out 20 nm-coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler
Beach Florida out 20 nm.

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations