Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kjax 201329
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville Florida
919 am EDT Wed Sep 20 2017
..isolated afternoon & evening convection southeast Georgia...
Update...surface high pressure extended across NE Florida which
will suppress convective growth today. A mean layer trough axis
stretched southward from Tropical Storm Jose down the Atlantic
Seaboard and across southeast Georgia. This weak trough axis in addition to
elevated moisture content combined with daytime heating will bring a
chance of isolated to scattered showers and isolated tstorms across
southeast Georgia and along and north of the I-10 corridor in NE Florida,
especially later this afternoon and early evening when the sea
breezes will converge inland with the front, between Highway 301 and
I-75. Although convective coverage will not be great, a few stronger
storms will be possible given pockets of dry air low/mid level air
in place per the 12z tae raob. Convection will drift toward the south-southeast
into the evening with debris clouds blowing across NE Florida.
Temperatures will rise near to just above highs realized yesterday
with maxes in the low 90s inland to mid/upper 80s coast where the
East Coast sea breeze will bring relief mid afternoon.
Note: no 12z 9/20/17 Jacksonville radiosonde observation due to ground equipment
Aviation...prevailing VFR conditions with tempo restrictions
possible this afternoon due to isolated showers/tstorms.
Marine...small craft exercise caution conditions due to elevated
swells creating combined seas of 4-6 ft over the outer waters
(swells 3-5 ft with 11-12 second periods). Otherwise, light
diurnally driven sea breeze winds will prevail with speeds 15 kts
Rip currents: moderate risk today and Thursday.
Hydrology...coastal flood advisory remains in effect for the St.
Johns River basin and its tributaries due to minor to just shy of
moderate flooding around high tide. Will likely extended through
Moderate river flooding continued along the sante fe, St. Marys
and Ocklawaha rivers in northeast Florida with minor flooding
along the Satilla river in southeast Georgia.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
amg 91 69 91 69 / 30 10 30 10
ssi 87 73 87 74 / 20 10 20 10
jax 91 71 89 72 / 20 10 20 10
sgj 88 73 87 73 / 10 0 10 10
gnv 91 69 90 69 / 10 0 20 10
ocf 92 68 91 70 / 10 0 20 10
Florida...coastal flood advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Clay-
coastal Duval-Flagler-inland Duval-Putnam-St. Johns.