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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville Florida
1105 PM EDT sun Jun 25 2017

Update...
late evening surface analysis depicts a cold front moving into
interior southeast Georgia, with a reinforcing cold front moving
through the northeastern U.S. And the Ohio and Tennessee valleys.
Aloft...a trough is deepening over the eastern half of the nation,
pushing Atlantic ridging east of the Bahamas. Outflow boundaries
from deep convection over Georgia progressed into northeast
Florida this evening, meeting a pinned Atlantic coast sea breeze
near downtown Jacksonville. Convection erupted following this
merger, with activity progressing southeastward into St. Johns
County. Cells were slow moving, producing 2-4 inch rainfall
amounts in a relatively short period of time over urban and
coastal areas. Evening high tide coincided with the heavy
downpours over St. Augustine, resulting in significant street
flooding this evening. Outflows from this activity have settled
near Lake George, where convection is ongoing. Lingering
stratiform rainfall has dissipated over most of southeast Georgia.
Short-term, high resolution models indicated that convection over
eastern Putnam and Flagler counties will dissipate shortly after
midnight. Debris clouds and additional mid and high cloudiness
associated with the front and approaching upper trough will linger
overnight, with lows generally in the low to mid 70s for most
locations.

&&

Aviation...
VFR conditions will prevail overnight, with mid and high
cloudiness expected to linger through the early morning hours. A
cold front will move over the terminals by midday on Monday, with
showers and thunderstorms developing during the afternoon hours.
We have placed prob30 groups at the northeast Florida terminals
after 16z on Monday for wind gusts up to 25 knots and sub-VFR
conditions in heavy downpours, with timing and intensity in
question for Monday afternoon at ssi.

&&

Marine...
a cold front will cross the southeast Georgia waters overnight,
with northerly winds developing towards sunrise, becoming
northeasterly during the morning hours. This front will move over
the northeast Florida waters on Monday as high pressure builds to
the northwest of our region. Winds will become northerly during
the morning hours over the northeast Florida waters, becoming
northeasterly during the afternoon hours. Winds and seas will
remain below caution levels as onshore winds continue for much of
this week.

Rip currents: moderate risk developing on Monday afternoon at the
southeast Georgia beaches as onshore winds develop. Moderate risk
expected at all beaches on Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
amg 72 87 69 89 / 50 50 20 20
ssi 76 84 75 85 / 80 60 30 40
jax 74 87 71 86 / 50 70 30 40
sgj 75 85 73 84 / 90 60 40 50
gnv 73 88 71 87 / 20 70 50 40
ocf 73 89 72 87 / 20 70 50 50

&&

Jax watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...none.
Georgia...none.
Am...none.

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