Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kjax 241847
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville Florida
247 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017
Near term/thru Saturday/...
a strong area of high pressure will be nearly stationary offshore
of the mid-Atlantic coast....maintaining an onshore southeast flow
over our forecast area. Model guidance shows some clouds over the
coastal waters spreading over land from time to time, but shows no
precip potential...so will leave forecast dry with 10 pct pop over
coastal counties. Low temps tonight are expected to be in the mid 50s
well inland to lwr 60s immediate coast. High temps Saturday will
be in the mid 70s coast...upr 70s-lwr 80s inland with the warmest
temps over our western counties.
Short term /thru Sunday night/...
upper ridge centered along southeast U.S. Coast gets flattened out
while a cut-off low opens up and moves towards the Great Lakes.
The tail end of a short wave trough will traverse the area Sunday
bringing a chance of showers and possible storms mainly to the
inland areas of southeast GA and extreme NE FL. Temps will warm into
the lower 80s inland and mid/upper 70s along the coast. Lows in the
50s inland to lower/mid 60s coast.
Long term /Monday-Friday/...
fairly progressive pattern expected with a mid/upper ridging over
the region on Monday which then moves out by early Tuesday as tail
end of shortwave trough pushes through accompanied by an increase in
moisture. Best moisture and lift will be north of the area but at
this time just isold convection fcst both Monday and Tuesday due to
aftn sea breezes and shortwave trough. Generally warm and dry
conditions Wed and Thu as GFS and European model (ecmwf) show 500 mb ridge across the
area...though lingering weak sfc trough may be near our north zones.
Forcing and instability too weak to justify probability of precipitation at this time during
this latter period. Above normal Max temps expected each day into
the lower to mid 80s inland...closer to upper 70s and lower 80s at
the coast. Lows will be in the 50s to near 60...also above normal by
Aviation...VFR conditions in tafs for the next 24 hrs. Some potential
for occasional cigs nearing MVFR to affect coastal tafs as cloudiness
over coastal waters spreads inland...but showed this as an occasional
cig bkn030 for now at ksgj and kssi this evening.
Marine...maintaining Small Craft Advisory for offshore component through Sat morning due
to elevated seas with easterly swell. Will let next shift evaluate 00z
data to determine need to extend advisory through the rest of Sat.
Southeast flow to continue over waters the next several days with strong high
pressure remaining offshore of the mid-Atlantic coast. Winds will
gradually weaken during the next several days.
Rip currents: high risk today. Moderate risk expected Saturday.
Fire weather...winds will gradually decrease over the weekend. Breezy
conditions still expected along the coast Saturday afternoon. An
upper disturbance will bring a chance of afternoon showers and
possible storms to the inland areas Sunday. Min rh's are expected to
be above critical levels.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
amg 56 80 59 82 / 10 10 10 30
ssi 60 74 62 75 / 10 10 0 10
jax 57 78 57 81 / 10 10 0 10
sgj 61 76 61 78 / 10 10 10 10
gnv 55 81 58 82 / 10 10 0 20
ocf 56 81 59 82 / 10 10 0 10
Florida...high rip current risk until 11 PM EDT this evening for coastal
Duval-coastal Nassau-Flagler-St. Johns.
Georgia...high rip current risk until 11 PM EDT this evening for coastal
Am...Small Craft Advisory until 11 am EDT Saturday for waters from
Altamaha Sound Georgia to Fernandina Beach Florida from 20 to 60 nm-
waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine Florida from 20 to
60 nm-waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach Florida from 20
to 60 nm.