Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Jacksonville Florida
955 am EDT sun Jul 24 2016

Update...water vapor imagery shows nice dry slot across much of
the Florida Peninsula due to markedly drier air working across
the region. The upper low is currently extends offshore of Titusville
southwestward into Lake Okeechobee. This low will work westward
through the day with much drier air on the western side of the
low. The 12z kjax sounding has a precipitable water of only 1.55 inches. The upper
low will move westward into the eastern Gulf of Mexico just
offshore of Tampa by early evening. With this scenario, convection
will be quite limited during most of the day, with drier air and
with our region on the subsident side of the upper low. However,
by early evening, as low pushes into the Gulf and as sea breezes
merge over the suwanne valley and the far interior southeast Georgia where
isolated to widely scattered convection is possible.

&&

Aviation...continued VFR with isolated to widely scattered
afternoon convection very late in the afternoon or early evening
with thunderstorms in the vicinity mainly inland over kgnv between 17-22z away from
coastal taf sites. Current light southwest wind to become east-southeast or
southeast in the late morning or afternoon, then light and variable again
later this evening/overnight.

&&

Marine...prevailing flow will generally be out of a southerly direction at
around 10 to 15 knots through the upcoming week. Seas will generally
average 2 to 3 feet. No headlines are anticipated.

Rip currents: low risk.



&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
amg 97 73 95 73 / 30 20 20 10
ssi 90 78 91 77 / 10 10 10 10
jax 95 72 93 74 / 10 10 20 10
sgj 91 75 89 75 / 10 10 20 20
gnv 95 72 93 72 / 30 20 40 20
ocf 94 73 93 73 / 30 30 40 20

&&

Jax watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...none.
Georgia...none.
Am...none.
&&

$$

Cordero/Nelson

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations