Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville Florida
313 am EDT sun Oct 23 2016
Near term /through tonight/...
Early this morning...clear skies and cool temps on track with high
pressure northwest of the region and widespread lows still expected in
the Lower/Middle 40s inland and near 50 along the coast. Will
still be just above record lows at climate sites. Some upper 30s
will be possible around sunrise in normally colder locations.
Record lows for Sunday October 23rd...
jax 40 in 1976...gnv 42 in 2011...amg 38 in 1987...ssi 45 in 1988
Today...high pressure settles down over the NE Florida/southeast Georgia region
with sunny skies and light north to northeast winds. Max temps
will rebound slightly into the middle to upper 70s with lower 70s
along the coast in the developing light onshore flow.
Tonight...high pressure ridge remains across the region but
weakens slightly and still expect good radiational cooling
conditions under clear skies and light winds. Expect another round
of min temps in the Lower/Middle 40s inland and near 50 closer to
Short term /Monday and Tuesday/...
High pressure will continue to build in on Monday and temps will
continue to moderate with Max temps checking in just a little
above normal ahead of an approaching backdoor cold front.
Nighttime temps, however, will remain below normal on Monday night
as winds remain nearly calm just ahead of the front.
High pressure will build across the mid-Atlantic states on
Tuesday and this will send a backdoor cold front through our area
on Tuesday morning. This will begin a transition to an onshore
flow pattern with breezy conditions developing at the beaches.
Long term /Wednesday through Saturday/...
Onshore flow will continue throughout the week and this pattern
will bring an increase in low level moisture and a slight chance
of a few coastal showers Tuesday night through Friday. The flow
off the Atlantic will favor an increase in low clouds, with skies
becoming at least partly cloudy. Temps will check in near normal,
with min temps moderating to above normal levels along the coast.
north to northeast flow around 10-15 knots with seas continuing to
subside through the remainder of the weekend with no headlines.
Light north flow on Monday will increase to east/NE flow at 15-20
knots for Tuesday through Thursday with Small Craft Advisory flags possible as seas
gradually build into the 5-7 ft by the middle of the week.
Rip currents: with some lingering swells marginal moderate risk
along the NE Florida coast and low risk across the southeast Georgia coast.
Relative humidities will reach critical levels across well inland
locations of southeast Georgia and also across the Suwannee River
valley of northeast Florida this afternoon. Sustained
northeasterly winds will average less than 15 mph today. Relative
humidities will once again reach critical levels for portions of
the area on Monday but winds will be light and variable. Fuel
moistures will remain too high to support any headlines.
Will leave the coastal flood statement for the middle St. Johns
River basin intact for one last day as elevated water levels will
continue from the Shands bridge southward through the Palatka
vicinity on the St. Johns and along Dunns creek near Satsuma.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
amg 76 43 82 50 / 0 0 0 0
ssi 71 55 79 57 / 0 0 0 0
jax 74 46 80 52 / 0 0 0 0
sgj 74 54 77 57 / 0 0 0 0
gnv 78 46 81 48 / 0 0 0 0
ocf 78 48 80 50 / 0 0 0 0