Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Jacksonville Florida
947 am EST Tue Dec 6 2016

a couple lines of showers and embedded storms were moving across
the region this morning. There remains weak rotation in the
southern line, and an isolated quick spin up cannot be ruled out.
The shortwave trough was moving across the southeast, and the back
end of the showers was moving eastward extending in a line from
roughly Jesup to Live Oak. To the west of the region, dry
conditions should prevail through the afternoon. Showers and
embedded storms are expected to end for the rest of the region by
the mid afternoon. Westerly winds will increase today, and breezy
conditions will prevail this afternoon. Skies should scatter out,
and temperatures will warm into the upper 70s to mid 80s. GFS MOS
06z guidance has a high of 88 degrees for the Jacksonville area
this afternoon. Stayed below this due to the rainfall and cloud
cover initially, but record high values are possible once again.
The record high for the date at jax is 83 degrees, and the all-
time record high for the month of December is 85, which was tied


MVFR/IFR conditions in showers/storms will continue through the
early afternoon before ending quickly from northwest to southeast.
Conditions will then quickly improve this afternoon, with VFR
conditions prevailing through the taf period. West to
southwesterly winds will increase to 15-20 knots this afternoon as
the drier air moves into the region. Winds will then diminish this


Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through the afternoon for
the offshore waters beyond 20 nm for winds of 20-25 knots and seas
of 5 to 7 feet.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
amg 80 52 69 49 / 100 0 0 10
ssi 83 57 67 54 / 60 0 0 0
jax 86 54 71 51 / 90 0 0 0
sgj 85 53 70 51 / 90 10 0 0
gnv 81 52 73 49 / 100 0 0 0
ocf 80 54 74 50 / 80 10 0 10


Jax watches/warnings/advisories...
Am...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for waters
from Altamaha Sound Georgia to Fernandina Beach Florida from 20 to 60
nm-waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine Florida from 20
to 60 nm-waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach Florida from
20 to 60 nm.




National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations