Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kjax 250106
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville Florida
906 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017
no change from previous forecast as much of the area is in dry
slot with pwats close to 1.5" although a moist pocket of air with
pwats close to 2 inches is across the St Johns River basin south
of Jacksonville and this area was able to trigger some widely
scattered showers and storms as the Atlc coast sea breeze front
pushed inland and these will linger in this region until around
midnight as they weaken and drift offshore. Otherwise approaching
pre-frontal showers/storms will weaken as they push into inland southeast
Georgia overnight with a few widely scattered showers/isolated storms
mainly north and west of Waycross through the overnight hours.
Warm overnight with generally mid 70s inland and upper 70s inland.
On Sunday these moisture sources from the south and approaching
cold front from the northwest will moisten across all of NE Florida and
southeast Georgia and expect scattered to numerous showers and storms across
entire region. Lingering warm temps aloft will still suppress
severe weather threat but still expect more storm coverage and
greater intensity with stronger storms where mergers occur with
gusty winds to 50 mph, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall.
Prior to convection during the afternoon hours still expect
widespread lower to middle 90s inland and near 90 at the coast
with the SW winds ahead of the front keeping the Atlc coast sea
breeze closer to the coast likely only making it inland to the
I-95 corridor late in the day, and this will likely be the scene
of the strongest storms as the convection inland tracks towards
the east/NE and collides with stationary sea breeze and an isolated
severe storm not out of the question.
a few showers in the vicinity of ksgj until 02z otherwise VFR
through the night. SW flow off the Gomex may bring in some low
stratus overnight to inland NE Florida taf sites and have kept the
sct008 potential at kgnv around 09z that may actually reach
kvqq/kjax as well by sunrise but have kept it sct010 for now.
Shower/storm activity will be on the increase Sunday afternoon and
have just added some vcsh/thunderstorms in the vicinity at all taf sites to trend in this
scec conds will continue tonight with S to SW winds at 15-20 knots
and seas generally 3 to 5 ft. A few showers pushing off the NE Florida
coast into the waters this evening.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
amg 74 92 72 86 / 30 60 20 30
ssi 77 88 76 83 / 10 50 40 40
jax 74 94 73 88 / 10 50 30 50
sgj 75 90 74 86 / 20 60 40 60
gnv 73 92 73 89 / 10 60 30 60
ocf 74 91 74 89 / 20 60 20 60