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fxus64 kjan 231604 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1004 am CST Tue Jan 23 2018

updated for morning discussion.


mostly clear skies prevail across the arklamiss this morning under
surface high pressure ridging. These conditions will continue
through the day with breezy northwest winds. Temperatures look on
track with highs ranging from the low 50s in the north to the low
60s in the south./15/

Prior discussion below:

Today and tonight:

Quiet weather conditions are expected for the short term. Following
yesterday's frontal passage, high pressure at the surface will slide
south and east into our area today. This will keep dry weather in
the forecast. Temperatures today will be just about what is normal
for late January with highs ranging from the lower 50s in the north
to around 60 in the south. With clear skies and light northerly
winds, cooler conditions will occur tonight. Overnight lows will drop
into the lower to mid 30s areawide. /28/

Wednesday through monday:

The main period of note through the remainder of the forecast will
be Friday through Sunday of this upcoming weekend. Before then,
quiet and seasonable weather is expected under progressive flow
aloft. Then models indicate a shortwave moving east across the
country with varying levels of depth. The GFS continues with a
lower amplitude, quick-moving system over the northern Continental U.S.. a
weak cold front would dip into our region with a chance for light
rain in this scenario. The European model (ecmwf) and CMC on the other hand
indicate the shortwave energy will tighten up and deepen over the
Ohio River valley, with a developing surface low tracking
generally from the Gulf Coast toward New England on Sunday and
stronger cold front moving through in its wake. Given some
uncertainty, did not go fully with European model (ecmwf)- like scenario. But did
generally favor European model (ecmwf) for overall timing of the system and
associated forecast elements. With these uncertainties, confidence
decreases for the beginning of next week, but certainly the
potential exists for at least a light freeze on several nights
next week. Also, if a more robust surface low does develop around
the region, rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are not out of the
question especially through the Pine belt and areas south of I-20.


12z taf discussion:
VFR conditions expected through the period. Winds will shift out
of the north/northwest this afternoon with speeds around 10kts and
some gusts up to 20kts. Winds will diminish back to around 5kts
tonight. No aviation concerns expected. /28/


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Jackson 57 33 56 31 / 0 0 0 0
Meridian 58 32 56 30 / 0 0 0 0
Vicksburg 57 33 55 30 / 0 0 0 0
Hattiesburg 61 34 58 31 / 0 0 0 0
Natchez 57 34 56 31 / 0 0 0 0
Greenville 53 32 52 31 / 0 0 0 0
Greenwood 53 31 53 30 / 0 0 0 0


Jan watches/warnings/advisories...


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