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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Jackson MS
711 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016


Updated for the 00z aviation forecast discussion.

Previous discussion... /issued 403 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016/

Discussion...tonight through Sunday afternoon...high pressure across
the region, both at the surface and aloft, will continue to result
in quiet weather across the forecast area over the next 24 hours.
Clear skies, predominantly calm winds, and continued dry soils will
help to promote good radiational cooling tonight. Thus, another
chilly night is expected across the County Warning Area as lows range from the upper
30s to middle 40s early Sunday morning.

High pressure will slowly shift east of the County Warning Area on Sunday, allowing
flow across the region to become more east to southeasterly through
the course of the day. Still, a fairly dry airmass will remain in
place as dew points mix into the mid and upper 30s across the region
Sunday afternoon, resulting in afternoon minimum relative humidity
values in the 20s, and a continuation of some fire weather concerns.
Otherwise, quiet conditions will persist as highs warm up to around
80 areawide under sunny skies. /19/

Sunday night through Saturday...with the exception of Thursday and
Thursday night when a weak cold front will drop into our County Warning Area and
bring a very low chance for rain, dry weather is expected through
next Saturday. Sunday night our flow aloft will remain northwesterly
with the 1024mb surface high centered just east of our County Warning Area. This will
allow for a very light return flow but not enough to hinder radiational
cooling of our very dry airmass. Below normal temperatures in the mid
40s is expected over the eastern half of the area again with near
normal temperatures in the upper 40s over our west. Monday the
surface high will weaken slightly but become centered over our County Warning Area.
This will result in very light wind across our area and afternoon
temperatures to peak a few degrees warmer than Sunday. Afternoon
highs around 80f will result in critically low relative humidity over
east Mississippi. Tuesday our flow aloft becomes nearly zonal while a
stronger surface high develops to our northeast. This will work to
keep the Gulf closed and limit deep moisture although afternoon
minimum relative humidities should remain above critical values
helping to mitigate fire weather concerns despite the continuation of
dry conditions. Wednesday light return flow is expected over our
region as the surface highs becomes centered along the East Coast and
ridges back across the Gulf Coast states. This will occur ahead of a
shortwave tracking east across the central Continental U.S.. models remain in
good agreement that this shortwave will continue east and help
support a weak cold front dropping into our County Warning Area Thursday afternoon
and evening. Models still agree that very little qpf will be
associated with the cold front as well. Dry weather will ensue Friday
and continue Saturday as a surface high remains north of our County Warning Area and
ridging aloft shifts back across our region from the west. /22/

Aviation...VFR flight categories will prevail at all taf sites
through Sunday morning. Winds will subside to light and calm this
evening. Some patchy ground fog is possible around day break Sunday
morning at kglh/kgwo, but this currently isn't expected to hamper
visibilities at either site. 17/19/


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Jackson 41 79 45 81 / 0 0 0 0
Meridian 38 80 44 80 / 0 0 0 0
Vicksburg 39 80 43 81 / 0 0 0 0
Hattiesburg 40 80 45 81 / 0 0 0 0
Natchez 41 77 49 79 / 0 0 0 0
Greenville 44 78 49 80 / 0 0 0 0
Greenwood 42 79 46 80 / 0 0 0 0


Jan watches/warnings/advisories...



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