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000 
FXUS64 KJAN 252331 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
531 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

.UPDATE...
Updated for 00Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF discussion: 
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Light
northerly winds tonight will become S/SE on Sunday. Patchy frost 
will be possible across the area on Sunday morning. /DL/

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Through the day Sunday:

Modified arctic air is streaming down into the region this
afternoon. Temperatures range from 5 to 10 degree below average
in northwestern zones to the pleasant (and near-average) mid 60s 
in southeastern zones. Given the recent warmth I'm sure even temp
marks close to normal feel a bit chilly, especially given the
breeze. Expecting winds to die down tonight with skies remaining
clear and the atmosphere very dry. This should be rather optimal 
for radiational cooling and locations roughly along and northeast 
of the Highway 49 corridor are expected to get down to (or a 
little below) freezing. Usually in late February such readings are
nothing to mention twice, but given the warmth of this winter and
the early blooming, some people might be prompted to protect some
tender vegetation. 

Tomorrow winds will turn around to the southeast and south as the
day progresses, although winds will not be quite as gusty as
today. Despite the southerly vectors we do not expect moisture to
increase with any rapidity and only some mid to high layer clouds
will be streaming in from the west by the afternoon. The start of
the day will of course be chilly, but by afternoon highs should 
mainly be ranging from the mid 60s to near 70 (once again, above 
average). /BB/

Sunday night through next week...

We will be looking at an active period with rain chances coming for 
Sunday night through Wednesday night with mild temperatures.
This will be followed by dry and cool weather for Thursday and 
Friday. The best severe potential looks to be on Wednesday with the 
cold front passage. There will be some limited severe potential
for Monday and Tuesday.

On Sunday surface high pressure will be well east of the region as 
we get return southerly flow. Pwats will gradually increase to 
around 1.2 inches on Sunday night from the west. A weak disturbance 
coming from the Southern Plains will bring in showers for Sunday 
night. Showalters of -1 and lapse rates of 6-7c will bring in some 
elevated thunder potential for Sunday night. On Monday another 
disturbance will cross the region. Instability will be on the 
increase as with lapse rates around 7-7.5C, MUCape 1800-2000 
j/kg, VT from 28-30,and showalters -2 to -4 with 60s dewpoints. A 
warm front will be making its way north across the region on 
Monday into Monday night. This will increase thunderstorm 
potential esp in the warm sector. The upper jet will increase 
during the day toward the north. A few of the storms may become 
severe, especially on Monday afternoon, but rising height fields 
and weakening low low level jet will limit the severe storms from 
becoming too robust. Models show that convection will linger 
across the north on Monday night with the location of the upper 
jet. 

On Tuesday a midlevel trough will be pushing toward the Plains. This 
will push a cold front toward the Ozarks for Tuesday night. Surface 
based Instability will be prevalent with lapse rates 6-7C, marginal 
shear, showalters -2 to -4,VT 28-30, and MUCapes around 1800 j/kg.
SPC has a 15 percent graphic pushing toward our northwest delta 
for late Tuesday. With this in mind will put a limited severe 
graphic for the northwest delta region with the approaching system
for late Tuesday into Tuesday night. The primary risks will be
damaging winds and hail. 

On Wednesday the midlevel trough will be pushing toward the region 
from the Plains. This will send a cold front into the region. So 
with an increase in deep layer shear, good instability and lapse 
rates will continue the limited region wide potential for severe 
weather in the HWO for Wednesday. The primary risk will be hail, 
and damaging winds. The rains will end from the west on Wednesday 
night in the wake of the cold front. The models have some timing 
issues with the passage of the front for Wednesday into Wednesday 
night. Cool High pressure will build in from the plain on Thursday
into Friday. 

As far as temperatures are concern we will be looking at a warming 
trend as we enter the work week with highs reaching the upper 70s to 
around 80 on Tuesday. Lows will rise to the 60s by Tuesday night.
In the wake of the cold front on Wednesday highs will be in the 60s 
for Thursday and Friday. Lows will dip into the 30s and 40s for 
Thursday night and Friday night. Some locations in the northeast may 
dip toward freezing on Friday night.

Looking into next weekend it looks like our rain chances will come 
back to the region on Sunday with a shortwave trough coming from the 
plains./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       32  67  52  74 /   1   1  38  64 
Meridian      30  67  47  70 /   1   1  18  61 
Vicksburg     32  68  54  75 /   1   1  49  63 
Hattiesburg   33  69  51  76 /   1   1  12  55 
Natchez       35  68  57  75 /   1   1  37  62 
Greenville    31  63  50  69 /   1   2  64  68 
Greenwood     29  65  50  68 /   1   1  53  69 

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

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