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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Jackson MS
323 am CDT Sat Jul 30 2016

Short through Sunday night...a thunderstorm complex
that dove south on Friday into Arkansas and northern Louisiana has
since diminished during the overnight hours. However, it is possible
that this has laid out a boundary somewhere across the region which
will help focus showers and thunderstorms across the area today. Hi-
res guidance indicates late morning through afternoon showers and
storms developing across central Mississippi and locations south
today. Any storms that develop today should diminish through the
evening hours with the loss of daytime heating.

The region remains, both today and Sunday, within a weakness in the
ridge and a large upper trough situated to our north. This, combined
with moisture characterized by precipitable water values of 1.9 to 2.2 inches, will
bring mainly diurnal scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures during the period will be around or slightly above
normal with highs in the lower 90s and overnight lows in the lower
to mid 70s. With dewpoints in the 70s and temperatures in the 90s,
locations outside of storms could see rather muggy conditions and
potential for heat indices to near or exceed 100 degrees. However,
expect these values to remain below any criteria thresholds. /28/

Long term...Monday through Friday...under weak but general
northerly flow aloft, ridging will subtly increase across the region
through the course of the long term period. At the surface, high
pressure will remain wedged into the forecast area front the east,
resulting in weak southerly flow and a continued humid airmass over
the County Warning Area.

Each afternoon will remain characterized by highs warming into
the middle 90s, with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms.
This convection will quickly dissipate around sunset each evening.
A few clouds will remain present overnight, as lows fall into the
middle 70s. Afternoon heat index values look to again creep into
the 100-105 range across much of the forecast area, with indices
across the Delta Region perhaps climbing up to around 108 Wednesday
through Friday. /19/


Aviation...VFR conditions look to prevail today. There will be a few
sites that touch MVFR visibility between 10-13z this morning but
this should be brief and VFR vis should resume. There will be some
storm activity this afternoon, but it remains uncertain which taf
sites will be directly affected, if any. May include a few thunderstorms in the vicinity but
will let later issuances better time convection in and out. /28/


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Jackson 92 74 93 74 / 48 21 43 27
Meridian 94 74 94 74 / 40 24 36 26
Vicksburg 92 75 92 76 / 45 19 36 21
Hattiesburg 93 75 92 75 / 48 24 47 27
Natchez 93 74 93 75 / 49 20 41 23
Greenville 92 74 93 75 / 49 23 34 17
Greenwood 92 73 93 74 / 43 21 33 20


Jan watches/warnings/advisories...



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