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fxus64 kjan 250529 
afdjan

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1229 am CDT Thu may 25 2017

Update...
updated for 06z aviation discussion

&&

Aviation...
06z taf discussion:
VFR conditions will prevail through Thursday. Light rain will
diminish through the evening and any site that is seeing cloudy
skies now will clear. Winds will be out of the west/southwest
around 5-10kts through the afternoon before shifting out of the
sout this evening. /28/

&&

Discussion...
a few left over showers are still moving through our north central
region this evening that is associated with surface low to our
northeast. The latest hrrr model run shows rain dissipated by the
early morning hours and dry and clear sky conditions will
prevail come sunrise. Pops were cleaned up to reflect those few
rain bands to our north, otherwise no changes were necessary with
the latest forecast update. /12/

Prior discussion below:

Tonight through Thursday...

A deep cold core closed mid/upper-level low is progged to move from
the middle Mississippi River valley to Ohio by Thursday morning with
the associated surface low also moving off to our northeast into the
Great Lakes region. With the loss of daytime heating and the low
pulling away from the area any lingering shower activity should
quickly dissipate late this afternoon and early evening after
sunset. Cloud cover will also dissipate from west to east and winds
should relax as the surface pressure gradient weakens. The light to
calm winds combined with clearing skies and highly anomalous low
500mb heights will set the stage for near record low temperatures
tonight under nearly ideal radiational cooling conditions with a
much cooler and drier airmass in place. Overnight low temps will
range from the upper 40s to low 50s. For Thursday, temperatures
will begin to rebound under sunny skies as flow becomes more zonal
and shortwave ridging builds into the western portions of the
arklamiss. While temperatures will return to the upper 70s and low
80s they will still be around 5-7 degrees below average for this
time of year. /Tw/

Thursday night through Wednesday...
as upper level ridging continues to pass through the middle of
the country, a surface high will cross from west to east over the
northern Gulf of Mexico. Dry and more seasonal weather is
expected over the arklamiss on Friday and heading into the
weekend. Once the surface high settles near the Florida Peninsula on
Saturday, it will aid in blocking the next system from the north.
The discrepancy in the timing of the models exists even greater
today than that of yesterday. The GFS originates the low much
further north near the Great Lakes and holds the front off to the
north on Saturday and releases it southward into the arklamiss on
Sunday. The latest Euro shows the low developing in the Arkansas-
Red River basin and tracks it into the mid-Mississippi Valley on
Saturday. The front will slide through the County Warning Area on Sunday and bring
showers and storms. There is plenty of instability and there are
decent lapse rates with this system. The forcing just continues
to be the question. Sunday will be the day with the best chances
for rain/storms on this Holiday weekend. The front will continue
its slow slide southward on Monday and will stall along the Gulf
Coast for much of next week. /10/

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Jackson 62 90 70 90 / 0 2 3 10
Meridian 60 89 67 89 / 0 1 3 15
Vicksburg 64 90 71 90 / 0 2 9 10
Hattiesburg 61 89 68 90 / 0 1 5 13
Natchez 64 89 72 89 / 0 1 7 11
Greenville 65 89 72 87 / 0 4 7 17
Greenwood 64 89 70 87 / 0 3 5 20

&&

Jan watches/warnings/advisories...
MS...none.
La...none.
Arkansas...none.

&&

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