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fxus64 kjan 261057 aaa 

Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Jackson MS
557 am CDT Tue Sep 26 2017

updated for 12z aviation discussion


12z taf discussion:
patchy MVFR fog will be possible early this morning through
shortly after daybreak. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail
through the taf period. Isolated/scattered rain showers/thunderstorms and rain are possible
again this afternoon with highest chances in south MS. Brief
cig/visby reductions possible in any heavy rain. /Dl/


today and tonight: the mid/upper low which has inflated rain
chances across the area over the past several days is now finally
withdrawing toward the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Still, upper
divergence on the west side of the system will continue to aid in
convective development from the coast northward through south MS
today. In addition, despite the shortwave upper ridging beginning
to build across much of the area, a belt of somewhat greater deep
layer moisture remains. This will keep the Prospect for isolated
diurnal convection across much of the remainder of the area this
afternoon. Once again, most of these showers will wane by around
sunset, with a mostly clear overnight in store. With the airmass
remaining stagnant, temperatures will again be above normal
today, with highs generally near 90. /Dl/

Wednesday through monday: building mid level ridge over the Gulf
coastal states will limit convective potential Wednesday despite
the advancement of a shallow surface cold front over the Tennessee
Valley. What does manage to develop should be confined to areas
mainly west of the MS river where slightly higher surface
dewpoints aid in slightly better instability.

The surface frontal boundary will begin entering the northern
portions late Wednesday night and be completely through by late
Thursday night. Despite the convergence/lift along the boundary,
warm air aloft will keep a lid on any convective potential.

No appreciable cold air will be associated with this airmass, but
temperatures will return to more seasonable levels for this time
of year. The dryness of the air will be a welcome relief over the
recent humidity.

Convergence associated with a westward moving surface trough will
try to produce a few showers and thunderstorms Sunday into
Monday, but warmth aloft will limit this potential to the far
southern portions./26/


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Jackson 89 69 91 69 / 17 8 6 4
Meridian 90 67 91 67 / 17 3 4 3
Vicksburg 89 69 92 69 / 18 6 11 6
Hattiesburg 88 68 92 68 / 27 14 10 5
Natchez 87 69 90 69 / 28 10 14 9
Greenville 90 68 91 69 / 17 5 7 6
Greenwood 90 68 90 69 / 17 4 4 5


Jan watches/warnings/advisories...


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