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fxus64 kjan 251531 aac 

Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1031 am CDT sun Jun 25 2017

updated for morning discussion.


prev update has caught the morning precip evolution well and there
still remains some activity but the latest trends are for the
activity decreasing. This fits with the latest guidance as well
and this update was to keep that expectation with lowering pops
into midday and early afternoon. The other big change was to lower
high temps today. Due to cloud cover and precip, look for temps to
hold steady more and only slowly warm as we go into the
afternoon hours. /Cme/

Prior discussion below:

Quick update this morning to increase pops this morning and adjust
the location/orientation of them across the region. Decent area of
precip was noted across central portions of the area as increased
convergence/lift are associated with a frontal boundary in the
area and aided lift aloft from a weak short wave. These have
combined to support high-based/elevated showers with a slow
eastward drift. Activity will mostly be in the form of showers,
but a clap of thunder or two can't be ruled out. Latest guidance
has finally caught onto this situation and indicates this activity
to mainly be around during the morning hours. The afternoon looks
to see diminishing rain chances for all areas and drier air
filters in. The pops/weather were adjusted to show this trend.

Monday through saturday:

Not too many changes have been made to the forecast for the rest
of this week. There is still good agreement among model guidance
that the western Continental U.S. Ridge/eastern Continental U.S. Trough pattern will
break down by midweek, allowing for generally zonal flow aloft to
set up after that. A few quick moving shortwave troughs will pass
well to our north through the course of the week. At the surface,
high pressure will dominate much of the country for the next few
days as a 1025 mb surface slides eastward and weakens. Drier air
and a northeasterly component to the low-level flow around the
surface high will keep rain chances minimal across the arklamiss
region for Monday and Tuesday. Then by Wednesday a return of
southeast winds will bring an increase in moisture and an uptick
in typical summertime diurnal convection. Although a broad ridge
will set up over the south by late in the week, afternoon shower
and thunderstorm activity will likely keep high temperatures in
check near seasonal norms. /Nf/


12z taf discussion:
scattered showers and even a brief thunderstorm will be possible
along the Interstate 20 corridor through this morning. Briefly
lower visibility will be possible near the heavier showers.
Otherwise, VFR conditions expected through the period. Northerly
winds with speeds less than 10 kts expected at all sties. /Nf/


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Jackson 82 63 87 66 / 44 2 1 5
Meridian 83 63 86 65 / 29 1 1 5
Vicksburg 82 63 86 66 / 50 2 1 5
Hattiesburg 84 66 86 66 / 22 2 4 5
Natchez 81 65 85 67 / 25 3 5 5
Greenville 84 63 85 66 / 11 0 0 4
Greenwood 84 62 85 65 / 10 0 0 4


Jan watches/warnings/advisories...


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