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fxus64 kjan 190017 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
617 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

updated for 00z aviation discussion


00z taf discussion:
a thin line of showers and a few isolated thunderstorms continue
to push east across the region. These will affect gtr/mei/hbg in
the next hour or two. Along or just behind the front, ceilings
will be MVFR. Behind the front and line of storms, VFR ceilings
have resumed but winds have turned out of the north and gusty.
Sustained winds around 20-30kts with 40kt gusts likely through
this evening. Ahead of the front, winds are still gusty but out of
the south. Skies will clear through the evening as the front and
storms pass from west to east. /28/



Rest of today through sunday:

The cold front currently resides along a northeast to southwest
oriented line extending from near Memphis, Tennessee to just east of
Monticello, Arkansas to just east of Shreveport, la. Convection has
developed and, as expected, generally remained confined to along
the front itself. Through the rest of this afternoon and into
early this evening, this front will continue to race southeast
into and through the County Warning Area bringing a generally narrow band of
showers to the forecast area. An isolated thunderstorm or two will
also be possible along this line over mainly northern portions of
the County Warning Area where forcing will be best. Presently, it looks like the
cold front will be clear of the forecast area by 9 PM this

In terms of severe storms, instability remains meager across the County Warning Area
ahead of the front. However, deep wind shear is rather Stout. While
severe storms currently aren't expected to accompany the front, an
isolated storm or two could become intense enough and produce some
40-50 mph wind gusts. The better potential for such convection
looks to reside along the Highway 82 corridor over mainly north
central and northeast Mississippi late this afternoon into early
this evening.

Also of note, the pressure gradient remains rather tight across the
cwa, and will remain so tonight behind the front. A Wind Advisory
remains in effect until 9 PM, for a large portion of the western
half of the County Warning Area. Across this advisory area, sustained winds of
around 25 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph will be possible this
afternoon into tonight.

Rain chances will come to an end pretty quickly behind the front.
Strong cold high pressure will build into the region overnight into
Sunday. The persistent strong cold advection will result in breezy
conditions on Sunday. Under sunny skies, highs will be noticeably
colder as they only range from the mid 50s to around 60. /19/

Sunday night through next work week:

A negative North Atlantic oscillation (nao) locking in, at least
temporarily, over the next few days will help ensure general
upper level troughing over the eastern Continental U.S. Through much of next
week. This sort of pattern usually results in cooler than normal
temperatures for our region and this case will be no exception as
readings will likely average at least 5 to 10 degrees below
average in most spots.

A majority of locations will likely get down to freezing Sunday
night in the wake of the current cold front and in a situation of
good radiational cooling potential. However, a few spots along and
south of the I-20 corridor may still fall just short of hitting
this mark and perhaps still might remain shy of getting there yet
this fall. But, don't worry, there will be another shot at
widespread freezing temperatures on Wednesday night and maybe
even Thursday night in the wake of another reinforcing cold front
coming through Tuesday night or Wednesday. It is not out of the
question we could get a few showers on Tuesday (mainly in southern
zones) just in advance of this front. Otherwise, chances of
precipitation through the mid to long term period look rather
bleak with skies partly cloudy at worst through most of next week.

Even though some freezing temperatures are expected a few
different times through the period we are currently not
advertising any frost or freeze threats in the severe weather potential statement or graphics. We
usually quit these sort of advertisements after the middle of
November, because after that point most locations in the arklamiss
region have either had their first freeze of the season already
or are getting past typical end of the "growing season". /Bb/


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Jackson 40 59 32 60 / 18 0 0 2
Meridian 41 58 30 60 / 72 0 0 1
Vicksburg 39 58 32 61 / 3 0 0 2
Hattiesburg 44 60 33 61 / 72 0 0 1
Natchez 41 59 32 61 / 6 0 0 2
Greenville 39 55 31 57 / 1 0 0 1
Greenwood 38 56 29 59 / 2 0 0 2


Jan watches/warnings/advisories...
MS...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for msz018-019-025>028-

La...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for laz007>009-015-016-

Arkansas...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for arz074-075.


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