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fxus64 kjan 232118 
afdjan

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
418 PM CDT Tue may 23 2017

Discussion...

Tonight through wednesday:

Mid afternoon surface analysis showed a weak low over southwest
Alabama and an approaching cold front over the arklatex. The
surface low will shift east this evening while the cold front
moves across our County Warning Area tonight. Flow around the surface low to our
se has limited moisture convergence ahead of the approaching cold
front so far this afternoon but, widespread showers are expected
to develop along the cold front as it moves across our County Warning Area
tonight. Although it will be hard to rule out a rumble of thunder
tonight, instability looks to remain quite limited. Rain amounts
through Wednesday will generally be between a quarter and a half
an inch so flash flooding is not anticipated. The closed low
helping support the approaching cold front was noted on satellite
imagery over Iowa at mid afternoon. This low will continue to drop
south southeast tonight and across northeast Mississippi early
Wednesday evening. This closed low will maintain the chance of
light rain and light drizzle across the northeast half of our County Warning Area
Wednesday despite the cold front clearing our County Warning Area shortly after
sunrise. Temperatures will remain below normal, generally in the
upper 50s tonight and low to mid 70s Tuesday. /22/



Wednesday night through next tuesday:

Skies will clear overnight Wednesday, with cooler drier
conditions expected as day breaks across the forecast area early
Thursday morning. A couple of dry days are expected Thursday and
Friday as ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface build
into and through the region. However during this time, conditions
at the surface will warm and moisten up across the forecast area.
Highs on Thursday will bounce back into the lower 80s over much
of the area, and by Friday, highs will climb to above normal
values in the upper 80s to near 90 in some cases, with lows Friday
night only ranging from the mid 60s to lower 70s.

Currently, model consensus concurs that warm conditions will persist
and rain chances will increase over the Memorial Day weekend, right
into Memorial Day itself. While most of the County Warning Area looks to remain dry
on Saturday, highs around 90, coupled with lower 70s dew points and
a subtle disturbance aloft embedded in zonal flow passing just to
our north, will yield some diurnal convection across the forecast
area Saturday afternoon, primarily north of the Interstate 20
corridor. This activity will dissipate heading into the Saturday
night period.

Lastly, as a trough swings east from the nation's mid-section
towards the East Coast Sunday into Memorial Day, it'll cause a
surface low to develop well north of the County Warning Area. This surface low will
then drag a cold front towards and eventually into the forecast area
Sunday night into Memorial Day. As a result, good chances for
showers and storms are currently anticipated across the arklamiss
Sunday into Memorial Day, although the European model (ecmwf) suggests we could see
substantial convection late Saturday night north of the I-20
corridor...this will be a trend to monitor along with the
potential for any severe weather/flooding. /19/ec/

&&

Aviation...
18z taf discussion:
isold rain showers/thunderstorms and rain can be expected this afternoon. An area of
rain showers/tsras wl develop ahead of a cold front this evng and spread
across the area. Models agree that progressively lower flight
conds will prevail from the west after 03z Wed. Conds wl improve
from the west after 10z Wed. /22/

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Jackson 59 73 52 81 / 73 20 9 0
Meridian 61 75 51 81 / 74 27 15 0
Vicksburg 58 74 53 82 / 72 13 4 0
Hattiesburg 62 77 53 83 / 54 18 5 0
Natchez 58 73 52 83 / 65 10 3 0
Greenville 58 73 54 81 / 74 21 9 0
Greenwood 58 71 53 79 / 73 27 16 0

&&

Jan watches/warnings/advisories...
MS...none.
La...none.
Arkansas...none.

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