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fxus64 kjan 250545 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1145 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

updated for 06z aviation discussion


06z taf discussion:
VFR conditions are expected through the 24 hr taf period. A dry
frontal boundary will progress quickly through the region during
the day tomorrow resulting in a shift of light winds from south to


latest satellite images show some high cirrus in nrn Arkansas associated
with a weakening cold front, but clear dry air dominating further
south/east. This dry air will keep our skies mostly clear through
the night and temps are on track into the upper 30s/lower 40s for
the County Warning Area. No changes were needed to the forecast grids. /27/TWP/

Prior discussion below:

Tonight and saturday:

A pleasant Holiday weekend continues across the region as the
arklamiss remains under troughing aloft. A dry cold front/boundary
will make its way south tonight through tomorrow across the region,
which will keep conditions dry and cool, but not too cool.
Temperatures tomorrow will warm into the upper 60s and some lower
70s under sunny skies with some high clouds present. Lows tonight
will be cool with readings in the upper 30s and lower 40s. /28/

Saturday night through friday:

A progressive weather pattern will be in place across the Continental U.S. This
weekend through the end of next week, with most of the focus of
this forecast for the arklamiss region being on temperatures and
the timing of a few probably dry cold fronts through the end of
the week. Model guidance is in good agreement with the timing and
strength of features through next Wednesday, with the operational
GFS coming in slower with a shortwave trough for the second half
of the week than either the European model (ecmwf) or the various ensemble means.
This forecast leans more heavily toward the European model (ecmwf) with regards to
timing of features for later next week.

Regarding expected sensible weather for the forecast area, a
shortwave trough dipping down through northwest flow aloft will
guide another reinforcement of cooler surface high pressure on
Sunday, with another frosty morning possible if calm winds and
clear skies allow temperatures to bottom out Sunday night.
Shortwave ridging aloft and the return of southerly winds at the
surface will result in a warming trend for temperatures Monday
through Wednesday. Then depending on exactly how the next trough
develops, a shortwave or two look to stay north of our forecast
area during the Wednesday/Thursday time frame before a deeper,
positively tilted shortwave sweeps across the country. Again,
favoring the European model (ecmwf) for that period, a more substantial cold front
will likely push through the forecast area by Thursday or Friday.
Limited moisture return ahead of this front should yield the only
real chance for precip in the next 7 days, with at least a slight
chance for light rain showers currently expected. /Nf/


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Jackson 41 69 41 66 / 0 2 0 0
Meridian 39 68 40 64 / 0 2 0 0
Vicksburg 40 70 40 65 / 0 2 0 0
Hattiesburg 38 69 40 66 / 0 2 0 0
Natchez 40 70 41 66 / 0 1 0 0
Greenville 42 67 39 63 / 0 2 0 0
Greenwood 42 66 37 64 / 0 3 0 0


Jan watches/warnings/advisories...


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