Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus64 kjan 270920 
afdjan

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
420 am CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

Discussion...

Today and tonight:

As the upper trough remains in place across the eastern half of
the Continental U.S. And surface high across the Ohio Valley, northerly winds
and dewpoints in the 60s will continue today over the arklamiss
region. Temperatures will be a little warmer today than yesterday
and reach into the mid to upper 80s. However, with this dry air in
place(characterized by precipitable water values around one inch), it should feel
pleasant once again. As the surface high continues to slide off
to the east through the afternoon into tonight, winds will
gradually shift out of the south later tonight. Slight moistening
will begin but enough dry air should be present to allow our
overnight lows to drop into the mid to upper 60s areawide. /28/

Wednesday through monday:

It does appear that this late June dry spell will come to an end
Wednesday. As the surface high moves off the East Coast and low
pressure develops over the High Plains, moist southerly flow will
return to our region. Dewpoint temperatures will climb back into
the low 70s Wednesday into Thursday. An area of upper-level low
pressure will be lifting northeastward along the Gulf Coast,
helping to provide some lift for showers and thunderstorms across
the area. Better rain chances on Wednesday will be limited to
areas south of Interstate 20, before spreading more areawide on
Thursday and Friday. At this time, the chances for severe weather
look to be minimal for the second half of this week. Modest
amounts of instability combined with weak shear should result in
fairly typical summertime convection.

More active weather will be possible next weekend, however, as a
shortwave trough is forecast to slide eastward across the central
Continental U.S. During that time. A cold frontal boundary will dip into the
region, shifting the focus for more organized rainfall to our
north while bringing steeper mid-level lapse rates and a little
better flow to our forecast area. Microburst potential will be
increased with afternoon convection due to the steeper lapse rates
and higher moisture content of the atmosphere. While some chance
for showers and thunderstorms will continue into next work week,
models indicates high pressure will try to build back over our
region in the wake of the trough's passage. Temperatures will
gradually trend upwards if high pressure becomes established, but
have kept highs near normal for this time of year due to some
uncertainties regarding the larger weather pattern at that point.
/Nf/

&&

Aviation...
06z taf discussion:
VFR conditions will prevail through the taf period. Light winds
overnight will increase to around 5kts tomorrow from the
northeast. /28/

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Jackson 88 68 88 70 / 1 1 23 16
Meridian 87 67 88 70 / 2 2 19 17
Vicksburg 88 68 89 71 / 2 1 22 14
Hattiesburg 88 68 87 70 / 4 4 43 34
Natchez 86 68 87 71 / 11 2 35 20
Greenville 87 68 88 71 / 2 1 6 7
Greenwood 86 68 88 71 / 1 1 6 8

&&

Jan watches/warnings/advisories...
MS...none.
La...none.
Arkansas...none.

&&

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations