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fxus64 kjan 231151 aab 
afdjan

Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Jackson MS
651 am CDT Tue may 23 2017

Update...
updated for expiring Flash Flood Watch.

&&

Discussion...
just a quick update to remove mention from all products of the
Flash Flood Watch that will be allowed to expire at 7 am.

Prior discussion below:



Today and tonight:

An area of showers producing moderate to occasionally heavy
rainfall continues to push east out of Mississippi early this
morning, with scattered light rain showers elsewhere across the
area. This activity should continue to clear the area through this
morning, with a lull in precipitation for most of this afternoon.
Then as a low pressure system over the Midwest swings southward, a
cold front will be pushed through the forecast area this evening
into tonight. With some remaining moisture ahead of the front and
a little bit of instability, the front will have a decent chance
to squeeze out another round of showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms as it moves eastward. Neither severe weather nor
flooding will be much of a concern as this system pushes through.
/Nf/

Wednesday through Memorial day:

A cold front will be in the process of exiting the eastern half
of the forecast area Wednesday morning. While much of the
convection associated with it will be exiting the County Warning Area as well,
clouds and rain chances will linger across locales mainly along
and north of the Interstate 20 corridor for much of the day
Wednesday. This is due to the closed low continuing to swing east
southeast from the mid-south region through the Tennessee Valley,
squeezing out any lingering moisture across the region in the
process. The rain chances will finally end across the Golden
Triangle area early Wednesday evening. Skies will clear overnight
Wednesday, with cooler drier conditions expected as day breaks
across the forecast area early Thursday morning.

A couple of dry days are expected Thursday and Friday as ridging
aloft and high pressure at the surface build into and through the
region. However during this time, conditions will warm and moisten
across the forecast area. Highs on Thursday will top out from the
mid 70s to lower 80s and lows Thursday night will range from the mid
50s to lower 60s. On Friday, highs will climb into the mid to upper
80s, with lows Friday night only ranging from the mid 60s to lower
70s.

Currently, model consensus concurs that warm conditions will persist
and rain chances will increase over the Memorial Day weekend, right
into Memorial Day itself. While most of the County Warning Area looks to remain dry
on Saturday, highs around 90, coupled with lower 70s dew points and
a subtle disturbance aloft embedded in zonal flow passing just to
our north, will yield some diurnal convection across the forecast
area Saturday afternoon, primarily north of the Interstate 20
corridor. This activity will dissipate heading into the Saturday
night period.

Lastly, as a trough swings east from the nation's mid-section
towards the East Coast Sunday into Memorial Day, it'll cause a
surface low to develop well north of the County Warning Area. This surface low will
then drag a cold front towards and eventually into the forecast area
Sunday night into Memorial Day. As a result, good chances for
showers and storms are currently anticipated across the arklamiss
Sunday into Memorial Day. /19/

&&

Aviation...

12z taf discussion:
ongoing showers and a few thunderstorms will primarily impact the
khbg and kmei taf sites for the next few hours before clearing to
the east. Low stratus producing IFR to MVFR conditions for the
next few hours will lift at the other taf sites by around 15z to
16z. Then expect VFR conditions through the daytime. There will be
another chance for showers and a few thunderstorms to affect sites
beginning after 03z Wednesday at kglh and spreading eastward
through 12z Wednesday./Nf/

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Jackson 78 59 73 52 / 24 73 23 10
Meridian 79 61 73 51 / 50 74 33 13
Vicksburg 79 58 74 52 / 15 64 15 6
Hattiesburg 82 62 78 53 / 26 54 24 6
Natchez 77 58 74 52 / 11 60 11 4
Greenville 78 57 72 53 / 25 64 23 11
Greenwood 78 58 71 52 / 15 68 31 14

&&

Jan watches/warnings/advisories...
MS...none.
La...none.
Arkansas...none.

&&

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