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fxus64 kjan 230949 aaa 

Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Jackson MS
449 am CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

updated for 12z aviation discussion


12z taf discussion:
wrap around IFR-MVFR stratus will lift out of the regional taf
sites from 15-18z. Otherwise expect VFR conditions for the
remainder of the period. Winds will be out of the northwest at 15
knots today and down to around 5-8 tonight/17/



Today through tonight:

A cool quiet weather pattern will be the general rule for this
period. Latest rap analysis and satellite imagery show the upper
closed low tracking east across the lower Mississippi Valley.
Wrap-around clouds were pushing across the region from the
northwest. A strong cold front was pushing east of the forecast

For today the wrap-around stratus will clear across the arklamiss
from the west by the afternoon. The upper closed low will open up
and pivot across the region and track to the northeast across the
Ohio Valley by this evening. Under northwest winds highs will
range from the upper 60s to the middle 70s. Another upper trough
will surge down toward the region as another strong cold front
approaches the region. Winds will be breezy from the northwest as
high pressure builds in from the northwest.

For tonight the approaching front will quickly push into the region
and will exit prior to dawn on Tuesday. The upper trough will build
across the region overnight with a deep upper low center over the
middle Mississippi Valley. It will be a cool night with lows from
the middle 40s to the lower 50s. /17/


Following the dry cold front Tuesday, expect sunny skies and
strong mixing up to h700 to support northwest surface winds in
the 20 to 25 mph range with gusts to over 30 mph primarily in the
arklamiss Delta Region. Due to the low afternoon relative
humidity, will continue to highlight the limited fire weather
danger threat, and will a separate mention of the wind threat in
the severe weather potential statement.

Tuesday night through Thursday night:

As we go through mid to late week, a cooler northwest flow
pattern will keep the weather dry with temperatures averaging
below climatic normal, something that has been rare so far this
fall season (e.G., Only one day below normal at Jan since Sep
13th). Would not rule out some frost potential early Wednesday
morning over some of the normally colder locations of north
central MS, but expect temperatures to remain well above freezing
for the most part.

Friday through the weekend:

The forecast for the next significant cold front is quite
uncertain with global models suggesting that slight timing
differences will have big impacts on rain chances and timing of
colder air. The GFS has been faster and drier with the front,
pushing it through and well east of the area by Friday night,
while the European model (ecmwf) has been slower to push the front through
resulting in greater rain chances and slightly less cold air over
the forecast area. Have generally kept the forecast closer to the
more conservative model blend guidance temps/pops for now, but the
first legitimate freeze threat is looking more probable for at
least northern portions of the area by Saturday night. /Ec/


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Jackson 72 49 69 41 / 2 2 0 0
Meridian 70 49 69 41 / 3 2 0 0
Vicksburg 73 48 70 41 / 1 2 0 0
Hattiesburg 71 50 69 42 / 2 2 0 0
Natchez 73 50 69 42 / 0 2 0 0
Greenville 73 49 68 40 / 1 2 0 0
Greenwood 72 47 68 39 / 3 2 0 0


Jan watches/warnings/advisories...

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