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fxus64 kjan 231345 aaa 
afdjan

Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Jackson MS
845 am CDT sun Apr 23 2017

Update...

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Discussion...
latest satellite imagery showed the midlevel closed low moving
over the region with wrap around clouds. So expect the combination
of cool air advection and clouds to keep temps rather cool for
this afternoon. Latest guidance lowered temps a few degrees with
highs from the upper 50s east to the upper 60s west. The light
rains have exited the east so will keep dry pops for the rest of
the day. Some patchy drizzle may be possible this afternoon with
the system pushing through. Otherwise expect cool breezy north
winds. /17/

Prior discussion below:

Today and tonight: WV imagery this morning showing a weak shortwave
moving through central MS which seems to be responsible for the
lingering showers over eastern sections. While this shower activity
will push east of the area before sunrise, will not be surprised to
see some shower activity over northeastern sections this morning
as the mid level cold core low skirts that area on its way into
Alabama. Elsewhere across the region, cold air aloft in proximity to
the low will result in widespread cloud cover and cool
temperatures.

Ridging at the surface and aloft will help cloud cover dissipate
from the west after sunset. Coolest readings tonight look to occur
in the west where duration of clear skies and calmer winds will
allow for the most radiative heat loss. The warmest area will be in
the far east where cloud cover should hang on to around sunrise
Monday./26/

Monday through saturday: the cooler drier conditions will be
short-lived as high pressure at the surface shifts over and east
of the region Monday into Tuesday. Flow aloft will also gradually
become more westerly through mid-week as a ridge axis also builds
east through the forecast area. This will result in a warming
trend, that by Tuesday, will have highs back in the 80s each
afternoon through Saturday. Highs on Monday however, will top out
in the mid and upper 70s. Lows will also warm through the period.

Rain chances will also creep back into the forecast beginning late
Wednesday night as a cold front is currently expected to shift east
into the forecast area. Models show that as the front tries to push
through, it'll essentially washout over the forecast area, thus not
really bringing any appreciable airmass change in it's wake. Still,
some afternoon and early evening convection can't be ruled out
Thursday into Friday. Rain chances, albeit small, look to continue
to linger into Saturday simply as a result of the forecast area
being in a warm moist airmass. These rain chances will primarily be
during the afternoon hours, with most of the forecast area remaining
dry during this time. /19/

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Aviation...
12z taf discussion:
MVFR ceilings will prevail through the day and into the evening
with ceilings slowly rising from the west. MVFR ceilings will hold
on through the end of the period at mei and gtr, but rise to VFR
everywhere else by 24/02z. Northwest winds will increase after
sunrise to 10 to 20 knots with gusts from 20 to 30 knots, but then
taper back down after 24/00z./26/

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Jackson 60 48 77 49 / 8 0 0 0
Meridian 60 49 77 49 / 13 0 0 0
Vicksburg 64 47 77 50 / 7 0 0 0
Hattiesburg 63 48 78 50 / 13 0 0 0
Natchez 63 47 76 51 / 7 0 0 0
Greenville 65 48 75 52 / 11 0 0 0
Greenwood 60 47 75 51 / 12 0 0 0

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Jan watches/warnings/advisories...
MS...none.
La...none.
Arkansas...none.

&&

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