Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus64 kjan 232106 
afdjan

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
306 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

Discussion...
tonight and Wednesday...surface high pressure ridging will continue
to prevail across the area this evening, with mainly partly cloudy
skies as some high clouds stream across the area. Low temperatures
will generally range from the low to mid 30s. Little will change on
Wednesday as the surface high continues to move eastward over the
region. Skies will be mostly sunny on Wednesday, with highs in
the mid to upper 50s and light winds./15/

Wednesday night through monday: in this progressive pattern the
primary period of concern will be the weekend system as rain chances
return to the arklamiss. For late Wednesday upper ridging over The
Rockies will bring dry northwest flow into the region. The upper
ridge axis will come over the Mississippi Valley on Thursday, this
will provide dry sensible weather to the region until Thursday
night. On Friday the upper flow will become west southwest as we get
some return Gulf flow ahead of a developing upper trough pushing
into the plains. Moisture transport will bring in enough moisture
for some isolated showers across the far south and west during the
day. Rain chances will increase as we push into the weekend as
precipitable waters increase to 1.3 inches. The models have some differences on
the amplitude of the upper trough. The Euro and Canadian were
deeper with this feature while the GFS had less amplitude. So with
the stronger solutions could get a surface low closer to the
coastal region for better rainfall amounts across our southern
counties of 1 to 2 inches. Will follow a blend of the two
solutions with the rains moving out by Sunday night as the cold
front exits the region. Will keep it all showers for now as
instability looks to be quite limited. High pressure will build in
from the west on Monday as the upper trough axis pushes to the
east.

As far temperatures are concern there is some potential for a light
freeze during the period with lows mainly in the 30s on the cooler
nights. Daily highs will be in the 50s and 60s./17/

&&

Aviation...
18z taf discussion:
VFR conditions will prevail through the period. The winds will be
breezy out of the northwest this afternoon, becoming light out of
the northwest this evening./15/

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Jackson 34 58 31 61 / 0 0 0 0
Meridian 33 58 30 60 / 0 0 0 0
Vicksburg 32 56 31 61 / 0 0 0 0
Hattiesburg 34 58 31 62 / 0 0 0 1
Natchez 34 57 32 61 / 0 0 0 0
Greenville 33 54 31 58 / 0 0 0 0
Greenwood 31 54 30 59 / 0 0 0 0

&&

Jan watches/warnings/advisories...
MS...none.
La...none.
Arkansas...none.

&&

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations