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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service northern Indiana
732 PM EST Fri Nov 24 2017

issued at 723 PM EST Fri Nov 24 2017

A cold front is working its way through central Wisconsin at this
hour. Locally, wind gusts have increased a bit as a strong low-
level jet approaches from the northwest. Aside from a sprinkle
tonight, we anticipate dry conditions to prevail this weekend. Low
temperatures tonight will fall near 40. Saturday, temperatures
will be sluggish to rise into the mid-40s. This coming week, we
will monitor a few chances for light precipitation. Otherwise,
expect largely dry conditions with temperatures above normal.


Short term...(this evening through saturday)
issued at 223 PM EST Fri Nov 24 2017

A cold front will move across the area tonight. Very dry
conditions aloft should only allow for a few sprinkles. Very
limited cold air will be able to reach the area, so highs Saturday
will still be a little above normal.


Long term...(saturday night through friday)
issued at 223 PM EST Fri Nov 24 2017

A mild and relatively inactive pattern can be expected through
next Thursday as the flow remains high zonal with a few weak
systems impacting the area. Temperatures should rise much above
normal early next week as an upper level ridge builds north of the
Ohio Valley in response to an active pattern along the western
North America coast. Some energy in the form of a short wave trof
or upper level low should move east of the Mississippi River by
the middle of next week. There was a very large model spread
favoring low confidence in the timing and duration with any
precipitation associated with this system. For this package, kept
a chance for mainly light rain from late Tuesday into Thursday.


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Saturday evening)
issued at 632 PM EST Fri Nov 24 2017

All eyes are on a surface cold front currently passing through
Madison, WI. Ahead of this surface feature are howling low-level
winds. Latest guidance indicates greater wind speeds at 2,000ft
than what was in the 18z tafs. As such, we have increased the low level wind shear
speed; working to find the forecast average speed between
guidance members. There is high confidence in the low level wind shear end time.

After the cold front, we anticipate a period of MVFR ceilings in
response to the cold air advection. However, guidance attempt to
introduce IFR conditions. At this time we are opting to set such
solution aside given... 1) current upstream observations (which
are MVFR at worst), 2) a lack of low-level moisture with this
front, and 3) for a lake response, we're looking for a greater
northerly component to the winds.


Iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
Lm...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Sunday for lmz043-046.



short term...skipper
long term...skipper

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