Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service northern Indiana
901 PM EDT Sat Jul 30 2016

issued at 830 PM EDT Sat Jul 30 2016

Scattered showers across portions of northern Indiana and and
Northwest Ohio will diminish later this evening. Mainly dry
conditions are then expected late tonight into Sunday.
Temperatures will moderate through the middle of next week with
high temperatures in the mid 80s by Wednesday. The next chance of
rain for the area will be Tuesday and Wednesday. Low temperatures
tonight will drop into the mid 60s. High temperatures on Sunday
will range from the upper 70s to lower 80s.


issued at 830 PM EDT Sat Jul 30 2016

A couple of areas of lingering shower focus this evening. The
first area across Northwest Ohio/south central lower Michigan
appears to be associated with slightly stronger synoptic forcing
along with better co-location of weak instability axis. A
secondary area of showers has formed across far southwest portions
of the area where weak west-east near sfc trough persists.
Instability across these locations is weaker with a minimal
thunder potential. Will need to monitor for isolated pockets of
heavier rainfall over next few hours with stronger cores across
Northwest Ohio, and across the far southwest where cells are
training along near sfc trough axis. Otherwise, no changes to
forecast for remainder of the overnight hours with mainly dry
conditions and stratus likely filling back in.


Short term...(this evening through sunday)
issued at 159 PM EDT Sat Jul 30 2016

Combo of stratus wedge entrenched acrs the cwa and nwd pivot of
mid lvl convergence zone last night into the I-94 corridor in Michigan
curtailing further dvlpmnt swd acrs nrn in/NW Ohio. Failure to
attain sufficient destabilization alg W/abject lack of forcing
warrants scrapping pops all together tonight Sans srn Michigan counties
in proximity to srn Michigan cvrg zone. Otrws through this aftn xpc just
sct shra and perhaps a few isold tsra as temps struggle to warm
out of the low-mid 70s currently.

Ewd pivot of parent SW ovr the upr MS valley into the ern grtlks
follows on sun. Suspect considerable status wedge will persist
within contd moist bndry lyr underneath wkng ll thermal inversion.
Some insolation xpcd in the aftn but likely too ltl too late
W/minimal lingering mid lvl based forcing again xpcd to fail to dvlp
shra and no doubt reflected in sharply dwindling MOS pops.


Long term...(sunday night through saturday)
issued at 159 PM EDT Sat Jul 30 2016

Stg ridging aloft xpcd to build newd into the srn lakes this pd
as east Canada troughing breaks down at least temporarily bfr
redvlpg twd nxt weekend. Lg scale pattn signals multiple conv
complexes likely to arise within nrn periphery of sharp ll Theta-E
ridge that takes shape acrs the cntrl/srn plains. While
timing/placement difficulties abound within poorly clustered Med
range solutions...broad brushed shotgun pops remain warranted lt
Tue-Fri although will cont to refrain from spurious/noisy blended


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Sunday evening)
issued at 830 PM EDT Sat Jul 30 2016

The potential of showers at the terminals this evening, although
cannot completely rule out an isolated shower at kfwa over the
next few hours. Weak flow and a moist boundary layer should
promote deteriorating aviation weather conditions again during the
overnight hours with IFR/LIFR conditions possible. Have included a
slightly earlier onset time at kfwa for fog/stratus development in
the 06z-08z timeframe. IFR/LIFR conditions are expected to
persist until mid morning...with gradual improvement to MVFR late
morning...and to VFR during the afternoon. Instability becomes
even more questionable for Sunday, although could still be enough
cyclonic flow and weak mid/upper level forcing for an isolated
shower or storm across Northeast Indiana Sunday afternoon. At this
forecast distance with limited confidence in occurrence, will keep
tafs dry. Winds to remain weak through this period, with west-
northwest directions of 5 to 10 knots favored for Sunday.


Iwx watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...T
long term...T

Visit US at www.Weather.Gov/iwx

Follow US on facebook...twitter...and youtube at:

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations