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fxus63 kiwx 280553 
afdiwx

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service northern Indiana
153 am EDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Synopsis...
issued at 819 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Clouds and isolated light showers and drizzle will persist
through the overnight into the early morning Tuesday. Better
chances for rain will arrive Wednesday night and will last through
Friday as low pressure slowly moves across the region. Overnight
lows will be range from the lower 40s to near 50. Daytime highs
will be in the 50s.

&&

Short term...(this evening through tuesday)
issued at 330 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Compact upper low was centered in southern Missouri will slowly
work east-northeast over the next 24 hours. Area of rain has been working
slowly northeast, but also falling apart as it does, exactly as
suggested by hrrr. A band of showers exists on edge of the warm
front working north into southern portions of the area with
lighter showers trying to work across western parts of the area.
Little more than chc to low end likely warranted given coverage
through 00z. After that have kept focus far south into southeast as upper
low tracks closer. While skeptical any thunder will occur with
better instability further south with stg-svr storms have kept an
slgt chc thunder far south into early evening.

Although upper low will be slow to depart, best moisture will depart
to the east with any precip ending, but a continuation of clouds
through the period. Could be some fog overnight into early
Tuesday, but confidence in impacts to drivers low enough to hold
off placing in grids at this point. Temperatures will remain
seasonable.

&&

Long term...(tuesday night through monday)
issued at 330 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Very energetic pattern will continue through (and beyond) the
forecast period. Open trough currently digging into the SW states
will close off as it works towards North Texas weds am and then moves
NE into the Ohio Valley. Models vary on amplitude of the wave, but
regardless increase in moisture and rain chances will commence as
early as weds night and linger into Friday before shifting east
Friday night. Many spots could see half inch to inch of quantitative precipitation forecast with
higher amounts possible. Higher pops being added by guidance
appear reasonable.

Will be a brief break as some upper level ridging occurs, but
stronger wave already be moving into the SW states by Friday. Timing
and strength of this feature are out of sync in the models but
return flow into the region should allow for a return to wet
weather.

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Tuesday night)
issued at 148 am EDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Rain shield has slowly pivoted northward impacting the kfwa site
during the overnight hours. This area of precipitation will
slowly shift east as the low pressure system moves east of the
region. Cigs will lower to IFR mid to late morning at both sites
then rise to MVFR for the afternoon. Winds will generally be from
the north northeast between 5 and 10 kts.

&&

Iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
Michigan...none.
Ohio...none.
Lm...none.
&&

$$

Synopsis...Lewis
short term...Fisher
long term...Fisher
aviation...Frazier



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