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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service northern Indiana
120 am EDT Fri Oct 28 2016

issued at 1024 PM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016

High pressure will move across the area tonight providing fair
weather. Southerly flow behind the high will result in a warming
trend Friday and Saturday with continued dry conditions. A cold
front is expected to move through the area Saturday night bringing
a chance of rain, followed by cooler temperatures for Sunday.
Lows across the area tonight will be in the upper 30s and lower
40s, with highs Friday ranging from the upper 50s in lower
Michigan to the mid 60s in central Indiana.


issued at 1024 PM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Low clouds in wk low level flow still extensive across the area
late this eve with some high clouds associated with shrtwv
dropping sewd across the upr grtlks also overspreading our area.
Renewed subsidence in wake of this shrtwv should allow clouds to
diminish in coverage toward daybreak. Adjusted grids for more
cloudiness overnight with a subsequent slight upward adjustment to
min temps.


Short term...(this evening through friday)
issued at 301 PM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016

The cold front had pushed south to the Ohio River early this
afternoon. Trailing precipitation ended early this morning with
clearing skies ahead Friday as deep layer subsidence increases. A
quick return flow with limited cold air advection tonight will
allow temperatures to recover into the 60s over most areas Friday.


Long term...(friday night through thursday)
issued at 301 PM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Overall, a very mild and generally dry period is on the horizon late
this weekend into next week. In the interim, there is a very good
chance for rain late Saturday night over northeast areas from far
Southern Lower Michigan into Northwest Ohio as a another front
moves southeast. Moisture will pool along and south of the front
with precipitable water values climbing to near climatological
records for this time of year of 1.4 inches.

Temperatures will remain much above normal into next week as the
upper level flow remains southwest to west. Highs should reach from
the upper 60s into the 70s on Saturday and again on Monday through
Wednesday. Much uncertainty on chances of rain during the middle
of next week as relatively week systems move east or northeast in
strong flow aloft.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Friday night)
issued at 120 am EDT Fri Oct 28 2016

Gradually backing low level flow and associated warm/dry air
advection will slowly erode resident stratocu deck through the
early morning as midlevel ridge folds over the Great Lakes. Exact
timing still a bit uncertain with patchy MVFR ceilings across the
area. Hi-res forecast soundings and mav guidance suggest ksbn
could remain MVFR a bit longer while kfwa is already transitioning
to VFR. Do expect VFR at both taf sites by 12z and will persist through
the end of the period with increasing S/SW winds ahead of next


Iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
Lm...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 PM EDT
Saturday for lmz043-046.



short term...skipper
long term...skipper

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