Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus63 kiwx 240940 
afdiwx

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service northern Indiana
440 am EST Sat Feb 24 2018

Synopsis...
issued at 401 am EST Sat Feb 24 2018

Widespread significant flooding will continue over Northwest
Indiana and southwest lower Michigan with record crests on several
rivers. Rain will spread across the area today. There may be a
brief wintry mix at the onset, but travel issues are not expected.
Rainfall south and east of Fort Wayne of one to locally 3 inches
will cause river flooding and some flooding of lowlands.

&&

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 331 am EST Sat Feb 24 2018

Rain was spreading from south to north across the area early this
morning. There may be a brief wintry mix at the onset this morning
but travel issues are not expected as temperatures stay above
freezing. Given recent radar observations and trends and given a
preferred model blend which has preformed well this past week,
have raised all rainfall amounts. Also, after coordination with
neighboring offices, have also issues a Flood Watch for areas
south and east of Fort Wayne. The grounds remain saturated earlier
rains this past week. Additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches with
locally higher amounts will cause more rivers to flood as well as
flooding of lowlands.

&&

Long term...(sunday through friday)
issued at 331 am EST Sat Feb 24 2018

There will be a break from the rain early this coming week as an
upper trof lifts northeast and allows a dry pattern to prevail for
3 days. The bulk of the upper level energy will remain over
western North America. This will allow temperatures to rise much
above normal and help things dry out into Wednesday. A cooler and
more active pattern with rain developing is expected Thursday as
energy in the form of short wave trofs move east.

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Saturday night)
issued at 331 am EST Sat Feb 24 2018

No significant changes for the 06z tafs. Lower end MVFR/IFR cigs
will gradually deteriorate overnight into Saturday morning as low
level warm front continues to creep northward. A sharp low level
moisture gradient initially will create a distinct separation in
onset times to rainfall at kfwa and ksbn, with better chances at
ksbn not likely until late morning or early afternoon. Trend to
LIFR conditions expected by Saturday evening with widespread rain
expected. With some elevated instability, cannot completely
discount some isolated thunder, but point probabilities for
terminals far too low to include at this forecast distance. A
narrow window of low level wind shear criteria might be a concern in the 23z-04z
timeframe, but given marginal nature to meeting this criteria will
defer mention for now.

&&

Iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...Flood Watch from 7 am EST this morning through Sunday morning
for inz026-027-032>034.

Michigan...none.
Ohio...Flood Watch from 7 am EST this morning through Sunday morning
for ohz016-024-025.

Lm...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 am EST Sunday
for lmz043-046.

Gale Warning from 4 am to 4 PM EST Sunday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

Synopsis...Lewis/skipper
short term...skipper
long term...skipper
aviation...marsili



Visit US at www.Weather.Gov/iwx

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations