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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service northern Indiana
401 am EDT Mon may 28 2018

issued at 400 am EDT Mon may 28 2018

Much above normal temperatures will continue today and Tuesday.
High temperatures on this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon will
reach into the lower to middle 90s. Dry conditions are expected
today and there's just a slight chance of a shower or storm
Tuesday afternoon. Rain and thunderstorm chances will increase on
Wednesday as the remnants of Tropical Storm Alberto lift northward
across the Ohio Valley and into the southern Great Lakes. Highs
by Wednesday will be limited to the upper 70s and lower 80s due to
the increased cloud cover and rainfall.


Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 325 am EDT Mon may 28 2018

Continued hot and dry today with meager mid level lapse rates and
centroid of upper level ridge moving into southwest portion of
upper Great Lakes today. Concern still lies on confidence with
respect to Max temperatures along Lakeshore with strong insolation
and potential offset with development of lake breeze by mid
afternoon. For now will continue a few degrees cooler than well
inland temps per given latest lav/ec guidance agreement.


Long term...(tuesday through sunday)
issued at 325 am EDT Mon may 28 2018

Upper level ridge moves downstream by midweek in acquiescence to
partial phasing of northward lifting Alberto remnants and
northeast ejection of present intermountain vortex into upper
plains. Very low chance pops on Tuesday with leading edge of
height falls into diurnally driven instability. Strongest signal
for showers/thunderstorms on day 3 with influx of moist/tropical
remnant airmass with western half County Warning Area precipitable water amounts
rising to above 2.0 inches, about 200 percent of climatological
normal. Fortunately longevity of highly efficient rainfall event
thwarted by continued eastward advance of northern stream system
shunting greatest rainfall shield into southern Ontario/lower
Great Lakes by late Thursday. Thereafter, north central Canada to
northern plains ridge builds into upper Great Lakes bringing more
seasonable temperatures for latter part of the week into next


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Monday night)
issued at 110 am EDT Mon may 28 2018

Light winds and VFR conditions to prevail once again. May be some
higher based cu during the afternoon but no precip is expected.


Iwx watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...Murphy
long term...Murphy

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