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fxus63 kiwx 220751 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service northern Indiana
351 am EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

issued at 350 am EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Very warm and dry weather will persist into the middle of next week
as high pressure remains over the Great Lakes. Highs will range
from the upper 80s to the lower 90s with lows in the 60s for the
next several days.


Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 348 am EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Yet another day stagnated within low level thermal ridge to provide
widespread lower 90s temperatures across the region, with
record/near record daily highs today. Ardent mid level ridging over
the southern Great Lakes through the period to maintain dry airmass
with large scale subsidence to offset potential late
afternoon/evening buoyant parcels.


Long term...(saturday through thursday)
issued at 348 am EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

County Warning Area to remain between active Atlantic tropical storm track and
deep/slowly progressing western Continental U.S. Trof with primarily nil
sensible weather, save for end of forecast period dy6/7. Continue
to remove egregious lake environment/ thermal bleed into land in
far northwest County Warning Area through dy 5, especially given background
southeast to southerly flow. Leeside cyclo/frontogenesis with
formidable downstream ridging over Great Lakes to likely lead to
stalled/decaying boundary west of County Warning Area through the forecast period.
Shallow frontal forced convection potentially into County Warning Area by dy6-7,
though present indications for meager instability/relatively low
chance pops as cold pool dominant convection moves farther away
from Richer Theta-E axis.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Friday night)
issued at 1253 am EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Upper ridge will remain parked over the region resulting in more
of the same (light winds/dry conditions) today into the upcoming
weekend. VFR conditions will dominate as a result, though cannot
rule out some patchy/shallow ground fog toward daybreak.


Iwx watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...Murphy
long term...Murphy

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