Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus63 kiwx 240515 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service northern Indiana
1215 am EST Fri Nov 24 2017

issued at 656 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017

Mostly clear skies can be expected overnight with lows dropping
into the upper 20s and lower 30s. Some clouds will begin to
increase during the daytime hours on Friday as a weak upper level
system approaches the western Great Lakes. Gusty south winds and
warmer conditions are in store with Friday afternoon high
temperatures ranging from around 50 across south central lower
Michigan, to the middle 50s across west central Indiana. A cold
front will track across the region Friday night bringing more
clouds and a low chance for some light rain or sprinkles. Dry and
seasonably warm weather will persist through the remainder of the
weekend and into the first part of next week.


Short term...(tonight and friday)
issued at 309 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017

Warmer air will continue to spread back into the region tonight
and Friday. The lower atmospheric levels will remain virtually too
dry to support any precipitation given weak support above. A very
warm but shallow layer will spread just above the surface Friday.
The amount of mixing Friday will determine how warm temperatures
will rise. Favor a slightly warmer solution over what most of the
models are showing with highs in the 50s.


Long term...(friday night through thursday)
issued at 309 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017

Temperatures will be generally mild for this time of year through
the middle of next week. Scattered sprinkles or light rain
showers are possible early Friday night as a cold front passes
followed by dry conditions until around Tuesday afternoon as high
zonal flow aloft continues with limited moisture. Both the GFS
and more recently the European model (ecmwf) favor a more suppressed southern
solution out of the forecast area to energy emerging out of the
west in fast flow aloft. There is still much uncertainty
concerning the evolution of the upper air pattern during the
middle of next week; but at this point, limited precipitation and
mild weather are expected. A light rain/snow mix is possible
during the middle of next week, but as of now, no snow
accumulations are expected.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Friday night)
issued at 1215 am EST Fri Nov 24 2017

VFR conditions will continue through the period. Weak and
moisture-starved shortwave will approach late in the period but
only mid/upper level clouds expected. Surface gradient will
tighten today though with winds veering Friday night behind
associated dry cold frontal passage.


Iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
Lm...Gale Warning from 10 am this morning to 10 PM EST this evening
for lmz043-046.



short term...skipper
long term...skipper

Visit US at www.Weather.Gov/iwx

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations