Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus63 kind 222033
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis in
431 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017
the aviation section has been updated below.
issued at 130 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017
High pressure EST of Indiana will exit the area tonight. A
tropical low pressure system over the lower Mississippi Valley
will surge northward tonight...bring rain showers to central
Indiana for late tonight and Friday. Heavy rain will be possible
with some of the rain showers as the low moves through the Ohio
Valley on Friday.
As the low departs on Friday night...dry weather is expected to
return to central Indiana for the weekend as cool high pressure
settles across the Great Plains. This will result dry weather for
The large high will remain the dominate weather feature for much
of the next work week. This will keep mainly dry weather with
below normal temperatures through next week.
Near term /overnight/...
Issued at 130 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017
Surface analysis early this afternoon shows low pressure in place
across Louisiana. Warm and moist southerly flow was spilling
northward into the Ohio Valley ahead of the low pressure system.
Goes16 shows plentiful moisture streaming northward ahead of the
low. Meanwhile to the north...a cold front stretched across
western Wisconsin and Iowa to Nebraska...progressing
southeastward. These two systems will be on a collision course for
the Ohio Valley tonight and Friday.
Forecast soundings and time height remains mostly dry this evening
across central Indiana. Models suggest a slow and steady
saturation of the column through the evening hours which should
just be increasing clouds. However...overnight...stronger lift
arrives as seen within the mid levels...particularly across the
southern half of Indiana. Lower level q vectors also indicate
good convergence developing late tonight and hrrr suggests precip
arriving from the southwest associated with the low. Furthermore
as the front arrives in the area front the northwest late
tonight...and interacts with the warm and moist air mass across
Indiana...precip chances will continue to increase. Forecast
soundings by 12z show deep saturation with very high pwats over 2
Thus summing up will try and keep evening dry across central
Indiana...but trend pops toward 100 overnight...particularly
across the south. Pops will be considerably lower farther north as
interaction with the tropical air mass will be less at those
locations. Given the expected rain and ongoing warm air advection
will trend lows toward expected wet bulb temps.
Short term /Friday through Sunday/...
Issued at 130 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017
Ample dynamics will be in place on Friday for rain...some of which
could be heavy at times. The GFS suggests the approach of the
tropical low...reaching western Kentucky by late afternoon. Warm
and moist southerly flow will continue to stream into the Ohio
Valley on Friday. Models continue to suggest excellent lower level
q vector convergence. Forecast soundings show deep saturation and
time heights also show excellent lift...particularly across the
southern half of the state. Forecast soundings also show pwats
remaining at or near 2 inches through much of the afternoon. Thus
given the dynamics and available moisture will include a Flash
Flood Watch for the southern parts of central Indiana. Given the
expected rain...will trend highs cooler than mavmos.
GFS and NAM suggests the upper flow keeps a broad yet shallow
trough in place aloft on Friday night through Sat least Sunday
across Indiana and the Great Lakes. This flow aloft will help to
quickly usher the Tropic low east of the Ohio Valley on Friday
night. Cool and dry northwest surface flow will replace previous
flow on Friday night and continue into the weekend. Forecast
soundings and time height show rapid drying on Friday night as the
low and associated forcing departs. Thus may keep a small pops on
Friday night...mainly across the southeast as the system
departs...however most of the area will remain dry. Given the
change in air mass...will stick close to the blend on lows.
Saturday through Sunday should remain dry. Forecast soundings show
a dry column. Convective temperatures appear reachable...however
a mid level inversion that appears to be present should prevent
any deep cumulus growth. A the weak broad trough will remain in
place aloft...but organized forcing fails to be seen and moisture
remains lacking with northwest flow. Thus will trend toward partly clouds
this period. Given the expected cold air advection and...may
trend temps cooler than blends.
Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
Issued at 400 am EDT Thu Jun 22 2017
Models continue to trend toward a drier forecast for the extended
period. The only chances for a few showers and thunderstorms will be
on Sunday and Monday afternoons, mainly over the northern counties,
as a few upper waves move through the area. Otherwise, expect dry
conditions throughout the extended period with a gradual warming
trend. Highs will start out in the 70s on Sunday and Monday,
eventually topping off in the low to mid 80s by Wednesday.
Meanwhile, overnight lows will increase from the mid 50s on Sunday
night to low/mid 60s by Wednesday night.
Aviation /discussion for the 222100z kind taf update/...
issued at 431 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017
Threat for scattered showers in the vicinity of the kind terminal
will continue through about sunset. Lapse rates rather weak, so
sustained lightning activity looks doubtful at this time. Convective
cloud bases around 020, so occasional ceilings near that level
expected into the early evening hours, especially near shower areas.
Previous discussion follows.
In the near-term, low-end VFR and MVFR ceilings will persist
across all taf sites as better low-level moisture continues to
stream north into the area. Rain showers will be possible
throughout the period...with chances increasing after 23/06z
tonight across bmg/huf/ind. Laf may not get into the action until
Once the ceilings deteriorate to MVFR category this afternoon and
this evening...expect that to continue...possibly dipping to IFR
overnight tonight. Also...winds will veer from southerly to
southwesterly tonight into early Friday morning. Winds of 10 to 15
knots, gusting to 20 to 25 knots this afternoon will diminish to
8 to 12 knots around 23/00z tonight.