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fxus63 kilx 291019 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln Illinois
519 am CDT Mon may 29 2017

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 242 am CDT Mon may 29 2017

Large upper low clearly seen on water vapor imagery early this
morning just north of the Minnesota arrowhead. As this feature
slowly wobbles northeast through tonight, periodic shortwaves will
rotate around it and swing across the Midwest. While a lot of the
activity will be closer to the low, the arrival of one of the
waves will trigger some isolated convection by mid afternoon from
about I-55 east, where cape's are progged to reach about 1000
j/kg. Chances settle into southeast Illinois by early evening and
should be out of the forecast area by midnight.

As the upper wave should arrive later in the day, the warmer
weather will linger for another day, with highs mainly in the
lower 80s.

Long term...(tuesday through sunday)
issued at 242 am CDT Mon may 29 2017

The upper pattern will be slow to transition through mid week, but
the broad trough will slowly shift east as the upper low hangs out
over northern Ontario. Additional isolated convection is possible
Tuesday afternoon and evening as the next wave passes, then dry
weather is on tap through Wednesday night as high pressure slowly
drifts eastward.

Main focus remains with the latter part of the week. The GFS and
European model (ecmwf) are starting to get into a little better sync with the
positioning of the frontal boundary on Friday night and Saturday,
generally over the middle of the forecast area. However, the European model (ecmwf)
is a bit faster in shutting off the precipitation late Saturday.
Model disagreements return Sunday, with the GFS featuring the
arrival of a shortwave from the northwest, and the European model (ecmwf) slowly
building an upper ridge eastward. A slight nudge toward the latter
model is in the forecast for this time frame.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Tuesday morning)
issued at 517 am CDT Mon may 29 2017

VFR conditions to continue the next 24 hours, with mainly some
periods of mid and high clouds. As a weak boundary crosses the
area, cannot rule out a few thunderstorms. This seems most likely
near kcmi and kdec between 21-23z, but coverage should still be
sparse enough to preclude anything more aggressive than thunderstorms in the vicinity at
this time.


Ilx watches/warnings/advisories...


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